NFL Rookie Receiving Yards Betting: The Case for Rashee Rice in 2023

For a second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, it feels like Rashee Rice has flown completely under the radar heading into his rookie season.

The Kansas City Chiefs made a deal with the Detroit Lions to move up from the final pick of the second round in order to select Rice with the 55th overall pick of the draft, making him the 7th receiver drafted over the weekend.

The former SMU Mustang rarely found his way to the tops of draft analysts’ pre-draft rankings. According to Arif Hasan’s Consensus Big Board rankings, which compiles the pre-draft rankings from many of the industry's top draft analysts, Rice entered the draft as the consensus WR10.

By landing with the Chiefs, he is now positioned well to compete with his peers to finish with the most regular-season rookie receiving yards. The FanDuel Sportsbook rookies betting odds market has Rice at +1800 to lead all rookies in receiving yards, tying him with Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid for the sixth-best odds in the class.

Rice was a Prolific Producer

In hindsight, the lack of hype for Rice during the pre-draft process seems odd.

His final season with the Mustangs saw him finish with 96 catches for 1,344 yards and 10 touchdowns. He finished third in the entire FBS in receiving yards for his efforts while playing one fewer game than the only receivers that finished with more.

He wasn’t just a compiler of raw stats, either – he finished the season with an outstanding 3.05 yards per route run, according to Pro Football Focus, tying him with first-round pick Quentin Johnston for the fifth-best mark in the class.

Unlike many of his peers in the 2023 receiver class, Rice displayed versatility as a receiver at the college level. Seattle Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba played almost exclusively in the slot for Ohio State. Los Angeles Chargers receiver Quentin Johnston has a big frame but also played best from the slot at TCU. New Baltimore Ravens wideout Zay Flowers played inside and outside at Boston College, but he could be limited to the slot in the NFL due to his smaller frame at 5’9”, 182 lbs.

In 2021, Rice played 93.2% of his snaps from the slot for SMU. In that year, the Mustangs had future third-round pick Danny Gray running routes as their primary outside receiver. Despite playing with another future NFL player, Rice still finished with a solid 2.08 yards per route run mark in 2021.

In 2022, the Mustangs played Rice on the outside for 82.7% of his snaps – a completely different role from the previous season. His average depth of target jumped from 7.3 yards in 2021, all the way up to 11.2 yards in 2022. He essentially played an entirely different position last year than he previously had and thrived while doing it.

Fit with the Chiefs

That versatility sets Rice apart from his new teammates as much as it does from fellow rookie receivers. The Chiefs will enter the season with a receiving room of field-stretcher Marquez Valdes-Scantling, gadget/slot player Skyy Moore, and wild card Kadarius Toney. Each of those players offers the Chiefs a different skill set, but it can’t definitively be said of any of them that they could function as the team’s WR1 and line up across the formation.

That skillset could be what drew the Chiefs to Rice in the first place. Kansas City utilized two or more tight ends on 43% of their first down dropbacks last season. Each additional tight end in any given formation essentially pushes out another receiver. When the receivers you leave on the field can only perform specific functions in the offense, smart defenses can make assumptions about a play before the ball is even snapped. Leaving a versatile receiver on the field can keep defenses on their toes

This means Rice could see a massive amount of play from the get-go for Kansas City. Slot receivers like Moore are generally the first receivers to rotate out in favor of other positions. Toney is an undeniably exciting player but has not been able to prove to either of his two teams that he can be relied upon as an every-down player. Valdez-Scantling provides size and speed that can be critical to an NFL offense, but at this point in his career, we know he’s not an every-down player, either.

That means the Chiefs’ WR1 role is up for grabs in 2023, and Rice could be the best candidate to fill the position. And given that the Chiefs’ offense skews heavily towards the pass with Patrick Mahomes under center, Rice could see massive passing volume on top of a big snap share.

Based on career averages, Mahomes should pace for over 5,000 passing yards again in 2023. Last season, his 5,250 passing yards resulted in 1,338 yards for tight end Travis Kelce, 933 for JuJu Smith-Schuster – who left in free agency – 687 for Valdez-Scantling… and 512 for running back Jerick McKinnon. The two-time MVP - and 2023 MVP frontrunner - has proven each and every year that he will put up eye-popping passing numbers regardless of his group of pass-catchers.

Mahomes’ prolific passing has led to receivers like Byron Pringle (568), Demarcus Robinson (466), and Sammy Watkins (673) finishing some of their seasons with hundreds more receiving yards than anyone would have otherwise expected. That alone should instill confidence in Rice as a rookie. As long as he can see the field, he should be able to produce numbers at least on par with those receivers.

Conclusion

Playing with Mahomes is frankly just a massive edge Rice has over his primary competitors to lead all rookies in receiving yards. That only Kelce stands in the way of him leading his team in receiving yards is another advantage. Smith-Njigba will vie for targets between D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Jordan Addison will compete with Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, Johnston will play with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and Flowers will be stuck behind Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Odell Beckham.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.