NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting: The Case for Will Levis in 2023

One of the more surprising elements of the 2023 NFL Draft was the slide of former Kentucky quarterback Will Levis out of the first round. Some analysts had Levis mocked to be one of the first players drafted overall and the NFL itself extended Levis an invitation to be present for the first round of the draft – a privilege usually reserved for expected first-round picks.

Instead, Levis watched as potential landing spots opted for other positions and exited the first night of the draft without a destination. The Tennessee Titans finally ended his draft-day slide, trading a future third-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals to move up to the second pick of the second round and draft Levis.

The NFL Rookie of the Year odds at FanDuel Sportsbook has Levis listed at +2500 to win the AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award by the end of the 2023 season, making him a considerable underdog relative to his peers at the quarterback position. Bryce Young leads the rookie quarterback group with +430 odds while C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson follow him at +700 odds.

How to Build an OROY Season

Levis might not have the first-round draft capital of his peers but draft position matters less and less as each week passes during the NFL calendar year. Dak Prescott’s fourth-round draft capital didn’t seem to matter much in his triumphant 2016 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) campaign -- nor did Alvin Kamara’s third-round draft slot in the following year.

What mattered for Prescott and Kamara wasn’t the expectations that draft evaluators had for them entering their rookie seasons; it was their excellent performance once they touched an NFL field. If Levis takes over the starting quarterback gig for the Titans, it won’t matter that he went one Day 2 while Bryce Young went first overall. Once they get on the field, the best player will have the best odds to take home the OROY trophy.

The only thing standing in the way of Levis starting for the Tennessee Titans is incumbent starter Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill’s resurgence with the Titans after fizzling out with the Miami Dolphins was one of the best storylines of the 2019 NFL season. With Tannehill at the helm, the Titans made three-straight playoff appearances and won the AFC South in back-to-back years in 2020 and 2021.

However, the wheels began to fall off when their 2021 playoffs came crashing to an end in the divisional round. Tannehill’s three interceptions in that game played a critical role in the team’s inability to emerge victorious over the Cincinnati Bengals in an extremely tight matchup; the final score of that affair was 19-16 in favor of Cincinnati. The Titans turned around and drafted Liberty quarterback Malik Willis in the 2022 NFL Draft that offseason, and the feeling around the league became that the team would begin to look at options other than Tannehill moving forward.

Willis did not work out in his rookie season. The team quickly moved to free agent Joshua Dobbs over Willis after Tannehill’s ankle injury, but they went back to the well in the 2023 draft by taking Levis. Tannehill’s contract will also be coming to an end after the 2023 season, meaning the team should be incentivized to see what Levis has to offer as a starter.

Getting onto the field early in the season will be of paramount importance to an OROY bid for Levis. Past winners of the award did not necessarily need to start for their entire rookie seasons, but they did all need to see the field pretty early on. Players like Odell Beckham and Todd Gurley missed time with injuries at the beginning of their rookie seasons before finishing their first years with superstar-like production. Justin Herbert and Alvin Kamara began their rookie seasons behind incumbent starters but took hold of the top of their respective depth charts after only a few weeks.

What Can Levis Offer?

What could Levis look like once he gets on the field? His collegiate resume depicted flashes of upside but an overall inconsistent profile.

Levis began his college career at Penn State where he sat behind starter Sean Clifford for two seasons. He transferred to Kentucky ahead of his junior year, where he won the starting job heading into the season. It was then that Levis first caught the attention of NFL Draft scouts.

Levis’ first season as a starter was an impressive one. He completed 66% of his passes for 2,826 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions against SEC defenses, and displayed upside as an athlete by adding an additional 376 yards and 9 scores on the ground. To the naked eye, he had the make-up of a proto-typical NFL quarterback: 6’4”, 229 pounds, and a cannon for an arm. The expectations were high heading into his senior year.

Unfortunately, Levis’ college career ended on a down note. He was limited by injuries throughout the season and lost some of his playmaking ability as a rusher – he finished the year with -107 rushing yards (college rushing stats include sack yardage) and just 2 rushing touchdowns.

He’ll be a bit of a question mark as a passer heading into the NFL. While he has the size, arm, and speed NFL teams have fawned over, he lacks the undeniable production of prospects like Stroud and Young, but the Titans’ system might help ease his transition to the big league.

Tannehill has ranked near the top of the league in the percentage of his passes that came on play-action dropbacks over the last three years and has finished first and fifth in total passing yards in two of those seasons. We’ve seen teams utilize heavy play-action in the past to help young quarterbacks develop, and Levis should benefit from that kind of play-calling. He averaged 11.6 yards per attempt on play-action passes in his final season at Kentucky, which ranked eighth across the entire college football landscape.

Playing for the Titans could also give Levis an edge over his fellow quarterbacks. The Titans will play against both C.J. Stroud’s Houston Texans and Anthony Richardson’s Indianapolis Colts twice in the regular season.

We all know “QB Wins” aren’t a very useful statistic, but notching victories over some of his chief competitors for the OROY honors certainly couldn’t hurt. The Titans have been one of the better teams in the AFC South over the past several seasons, and have the best odds of all three of those teams to take down the division on the FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL divisional betting odds market at +360.

Will Levis' 2023 Outlook

Levis is an underdog at +2500 odds to win the AP’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award in his debut campaign, but that could change if we get any word out of Titans camp this summer about a changing of the guard at quarterback.

He’ll have to win the starting job at some point to have any shot at winning the award, but if he gets on the field, he’ll have as much of an opportunity as any of his contemporaries.