NFL NFC South Odds Update: Can Anyone Stop the Saints' March to a Division Title?

With seven weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, many teams have pulled ahead in divisional standings. Most divisions seem like a done deal with the favorites carrying large odds. For example, Kansas City Chiefs are -1700 to win the AFC West, and the Detroit Lions are -850 to win the NFC North.

However, the NFC South is still up for grabs. It is the only division with the favorite holding odds of under -200. The New Orleans Saints are only one game ahead of the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Just like last season, this has been perhaps the worst division in the NFL; the winner could finish with a losing record.

This could be a close race down to the final week, so let's break thing down. Here are the odds for the division, followed by a breakdown of each team. Will the Saints finish as the champion, or will a team dethrone New Orleans?

New Orleans Saints (-130)

The New Orleans Saints have been the favorite to win the division since the offseason. While they are in a position to win the South, the Saints haven't exactly blown anyone's socks off.

In fact, New Orleans has pretty much been the definition of mediocre. They hold a 5-5 record and own numberFire's 16th-best schedule-adjusted offense and 7th-best adjusted defense.

Perhaps mediocre was a bit harsh as they are 11th overall in numberFire's nERD-based power rankings. Still, the Saints are a shade above average, at best. It's unlikely that this squad will become a legitimate contender in the NFC. The South title could simply be a race for a first-round playoff exit.

However, New Orleans has the third-easiest schedule remaining, per Tankathon. This includes matchups against the Falcons, Buccaneers, Panthers, New York Giants, and Los Angeles Rams. The Detroit Lions are the only remaining team on New Orleans' schedule that ranks higher than the Saints in the nERD-based power rankings.

This is still the Saints' division to lose. The secondary has led the way with the seventh-best mark in schedule-adjusted pass defense. New Orleans needs more from their run D, though, as it is allowing 4.3 yards per carry (10th-worst).

Most of the Saints' concerns lay on offense. Derek Carr has been mediocre with -0.05 expected points added per drop back (EPA/DB). He's managed to limit his turnovers to only 4 interceptions, though -- a major improvement compared to 14 picks in 2021 and 2022. New Orleans currently holds numberFire's 15th-best schedule-adjusted passing offense.

The run game has disappointed as it is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry (third-worst). Alvin Kamara also has -7.1 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE).

If the Saints are to make noise and secure the NFC South, they must improve on offense.

Atlanta Falcons (+210)

The Falcons have received plenty of criticism this season. Coach Arthur Smith continues to make questionable decisions, such as not giving his best playmakers the ball enough (Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts). Atlanta continues to spend high draft capital on skill positions, yet these players continue to be underused. This is a discussion for another time, though.

Even with their mediocrity (21st in nERD-based power rankings), the 4-6 Falcons are only one game behind the Saints in the divisional standings. Atlanta still has two head-to-head matchups with New Orleans and has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL.

Clearly, the easy schedules are a product of this weak division; the Buccaneers have the second-easiest schedule remaining. The three easiest remaining schedules all reside in the NFC South.

The Falcons get their first clash with the Saints on Sunday. Atlanta could fare well in the matchup. In fact, they are favored by 1.5 points.

They have plenty of concerns, such as Taylor Heinicke (-0.03 EPA/DB) and Desmond Ridder (-0.05 EPA/DB) at signal-caller. The Falcons still have a solid rushing attack they can depend on. While Atlanta has numberFire's 10th-worst adjusted run offense, they have the 14th-best mark in yards per carry while averaging 130.4 rushing yards per game (7th-best).

The solution could be simple: feed Robinson. After averaging only 11.0 carries per game from Week 8 to Week 9, Bijan had 22 carries and 95 rushing yards in Week 10.

Atlanta could take advantage of the Saints' weakness in the run game. The NFC South could come down to the Falcons-Saints head-to-head matchups.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+410)

Tampa Bay has been perhaps the only positive story in the South. Baker Mayfield has been decent with -0.01 EPA/DB while leading numberFire's 11th-best schedule-adjusted passing offense. The run D has also returned to dominance with the top mark in numberFire's adjusted run defense ratings.

Of course, the Bucs still have plenty of issues, hence the 4-6 record. They have the fourth-worst run offense and the sixth-worst pass defense in the NFL.

With the ability to slow the run and air it out on offense, this is a team worth watching in the divisional race. Tampa Bay is the dark horse pick to win the division. The Buccaneers are only one game back from first place, and with four divisional matchups remaining on the schedule, they have plenty of upcoming opportunities to win the divisional crown.

Carolina Panthers (+31000)

There really is no positive spin on the Panthers. Simply look at the odds: +31000. That says enough.

Carolina's 2023 season is a bust with a 1-9 record. After trading their 2024 first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Panthers' future looks even more bleak.

The decision to draft Bryce Young with the No. 1 overall pick has certainly not aged well; the rookie QB has -0.32 EPA/DB paired with nine touchdowns to eight interceptions. Meanwhile, the No. 2 pick -- C.J. Stroud -- is lighting the league on fire with 0.11 EPA/DB.

The defense has been perhaps the biggest disappointment (fifth-worst unit). The offense also holds the third-worst rating.

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