NFL MVP Odds Update: Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes Lead the Pack

Six weeks of NFL action is in our rearview mirror. With a third of the regular season completed, we've learned a lot, such as maybe the Detroit Lions are really that good, and the Cincinnati Bengals do not look like the contender as many expected.

The lessons go on and on, especially when it comes to player performance. The MVP race has had major shake-ups since the opening weekend. The true MVP contenders are beginning to separate themselves from the crowd.

As usual, FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL MVP odds feature a slew of quarterbacks vying for the award. Familiar names are still competing for the hardware, including Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. This is certainly shaping up to be a QB award. Despite his excellent start, Christian McCaffrey is +2500 to win MVP -- the ninth-shortest odds.

Let's dig into the latest NFL MVP lines ahead of Week 7.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top Five

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +330

Tua Tagovailoa was in the MVP race for a few weeks last season, but this time it feels different. Tagovailoa has led the Miami Dolphins to a 5-1 start while averaging 37.2 points per game (1st), 498.7 yards per game (1st), and 0.6 yards per play (1st).

As you can tell, this offense is elite by all accounts. According to numberFire's adjusted offensive ratings, Miami boasts the top unit in the NFL and features the top schedule-adjusted passing offense in the league. Of course, Tagovailoa is the driving force behind the unit's success. The Dolphins are like a luxury car dealership with loads of speed, but let's not discredit Tua.

Tagovailoa leads the NFL with 0.32 expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB), 1,876 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, and 9.5 yards per passing attempt (Yds/Att).

The Fins sit in first place in the AFC East and are the favorite to win the division (-140) when looking at FanDuel's NFL divisional odds. Tagovailoa could continue to build a cushion atop the MVP race in the upcoming weeks, beginning with Sunday night's clash with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +340

Patrick Mahomes is in the MVP running -- stop me if you've heard that before. The reigning Super Bowl champion is in a great position to win his third MVP trophy.

Through six weeks, this looks to be a two-horse race between Tagovailoa and Mahomes. The Kansas City Chiefs are winning as usual, holding a 5-1 record. However, Mahomes trails Tagovailoa in the stat department.

Kansas City's signal-caller holds a 0.17 EPA/DB and a 6.7 average depth of target (aDOT) -- compared to Tua's 8.0 aDOT. Mahomes also has a 7.1 Yds/Att (far behind Tagovailoa's 9.5).

We have a long way to go, but as of now, Mahomes should be a tier under Tagovailoa due to the differential in various stats.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +650

Following dominant wins in Week 2 and Week 3, the Buffalo Bills come off consecutive disappointing performances. In Week 5, Buffalo lost 25-20 against the Jacksonville Jaguars as 5.5-point favorites, followed by a 5.0-point win against the New York Giants as 15.5-point favorites.

Josh Allen has still managed to stay in the MVP conversation. He is certainly a ring below Tagovailoa and Mahomes, though. Turnovers continue to be a problem, as Allen has six interceptions and one lost fumble. This converts to about 1.2 turnovers per game, which explains why the Bills are 20th with 1.5 giveaways per game.

In addition, Buffalo is now the second choice to win the AFC East (+145) after entering the season as the betting favorite. Allen still boasts some impressive stats to keep him among the MVP favorites: 0.19 EPA/DB, 8.5 aDOT, and 13 passing touchdowns.

If Allen is to close the gap, he must take care of the ball while leading the Bills to another divisional crown.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +850

Jalen Hurts likely would have won the MVP award last season if not for his shoulder injury that kept him out for two games. Thus far, Hurts has not lived up to his high standards.

The fourth-year QB has seven interceptions -- the second-highest mark in the NFL. Following Week 6's 20-14 loss against the New York Jets, the criticism is ramping up for Hurts, who threw three picks in the defeat. This does not look like the same Hurts who was clean and efficient through the air last season.

The Philadelphia Eagles are still winning with a 5-1 record, but Hurts' current play is simply not good enough to win the MVP award. His odds continue to rise; a good outing on Sunday Night Football against the Dolphins could change the narrative, though.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +1000

There's always a surprise contender who becomes a realistic bet to win MVP. This year, that surprise looks to be Brock Purdy. His odds were rapidly dropping prior to Week 6 following his excellent performance against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5. After the San Francisco 49ers' deflating 19-17 loss against the Cleveland Browns, the Purdy hype is slightly cooling.

Of course, injuries were a big problem, as Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel both left the game early. Still, MVP winners typically find a way to produce. Purdy was not up to the task, completing only 12 passes while recording a meager 125 passing yards. Now, many are once again questioning if Purdy is simply a system product who's boosted by his excellent counterparts.

I don't think this is a fair argument. Purdy had one rough game against an elite defense; the Browns rank first in numberFire's adjusted defensive rating. Plus, we can't ignore Purdy's exceptional advanced stats: 0.26 EPA/DB, 8.1 aDOT, and 8.6 Yds/Att. The Niners also rank second in numberFire's schedule-adjusted passing offense ratings.

Purdy is still an MVP contender who's worth watching in the race.

Honorable Mention

• Lamar Jackson +1400
• Trevor Lawrence +1900
• Jared Goff +1900

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.