NFL MVP Betting: Will Russell Wilson Rebound in 2023?

After causing fits in the NFC West (and beyond) for the better part of the last decade, Russell Wilson abruptly fell from grace in 2022. Joining the Denver Broncos last year after previously spending his entire career with the Seattle Seahawks, Wilson harshly learned how the other side lives.

Following a tough 5-12 campaign and a career-low completion rate from Wilson (60.5%), Wilson is looking to rebounds in 2023.

Offensive guru Sean Payton has been brought in after Nathanial Hackett's dumpster fire last year. Payton, of course, has experience getting the most out of shorter-than-average quarterbacks.

Despite playing in the same division as bazooka arms Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, does Wilson have a realistic shot at winning his first MVP award in 2023?

The NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have Wilson at +4000 to win it, tying him with Brock Purdy and Kenny Pickett for 16th-best odds. Given Wilson's lengthy tenure in the league, I feel better about him winning MVP than either of the aforementioned second-year quarterbacks.

Let's break down Wilson's chances.

Why Russell Wilson?

Undoubtedly, there have been points in Wilson's career where his play warranted MVP speculation. Through 10 seasons with Seattle, Wilson was consistently one of the league's premier players. He has always boasted fantastic deep-ball accuracy and employs slick moves in the pocket to extend plays. It was those traits that took him to two Super Bowls, winning Seatte's first Lombardi Trophy in the process.

Wilson's physical abilities may be fading some as he approaches the latter side of his 30s. But as recently as 2020, he managed to pass for 4,212 yards and 40 touchdowns. If Wilson can recreate numbers like that -- or even come close to it -- in Denver this upcoming season, that would absolutely warrant MVP consideration.

Headed into the new year, the Broncos have a few things going for them: Their defense is stingy, they boast talent in the receiving corps and Sean Payton is now the head coach. It is worth mentioning that Payton has helped orchestrate five separate seasons of more than 5,000 passing yards. For reference, Wilson threw for only 3,524 yards last year.

The Broncos' 2023 Offensive Outlook

Payton and Wilson have some intriguing pieces to work with in Denver. The Broncos showcase a diverse receiving corps with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick. Tight end Greg Dulcich looked good as a rookie, too.

Sutton is the possession receiver of the bunch while Jeudy is the burner. Patrick will rejoin the group after missing the entire 2022 season with a torn ACL sustained in training camp. He is also a reliable, big-bodied target.

The running game will likely be a committee approach -- at least until Javonte Williams is fully healthy. Williams had some impressive games for the Broncos last year before a season-ending injury, and he will look to take the bulk of carries once he's healthy. Denver also has Samaje Perine on the roster. Perine has proven to be a capable back who can contribute on all three downs.

One issue the Broncos had in 2022 was that Wilson was sacked 55 times -- tied with Justin Fields for the most in NFL -- which resulted in losing a total of 368 yards (most in NFL). To address this, Denver brought in veteran right tackle Mike McGlinchey. The Notre Dame product should present an upgrade along the offensive line for Wilson and the Broncos.

Enter Sean Payton

Payton will have a tall task in Denver, and getting Wilson figured out is surely first on his priority list.

If Wilson hopes to win MVP, he'll need to at least contend for the AFC West crown. Unfortunately, in a stout AFC West, the Broncos have the third-longest odds (+550) to win the division, per the NFL division winner odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Taking the division crown is essentially a prerequisite for any quarterback to win MVP. The last time a signal-caller won the award but not their division that same season was in 2008, when Peyton Manning did it despite the Tennessee Titans winning the AFC South.

Fast-forward to now, and Payton is saddled with scheming ways Denver's offense can surpass the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs or the Los Angeles Chargers. There is also still the Las Vegas Raiders, who have beaten the Broncos six-consecutive times. As I mentioned, Payton has a tall task ahead.

Nearly two decades removed from winning Super Bowl XLIV, Payton is facing a big-time challenge. However, if Wilson can even approach the levels of offensive production that Payton and Drew Brees created, Russ will have a shot at putting together a magical year in 2023.

Conclusion

We all have seen Russell Wilson perform at an elite level. He has been providing highlight-reel plays for years, and despite a miserable first season in Denver, there are reasons to believe in Wilson bouncing back in 2023.

Before Wilson showed up in Denver, the talk was that the Broncos were just a quarterback away from putting it all together. Well, there was -- and still is -- merit to that line of thinking. Denver possesses a top-level defense, and there is also depth in the skill positions around Wilson.

Payton certainly knows how to get the most out of an offense and brings with him a track record of piling on yards and points.

Will the relationship between Wilson and Payton proceed harmoniously? You can definitively see the upside if things click in Year 1. If it does, it's not crazy to think that Wilson could be in the MVP mix in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.