NFL MVP Betting: Can Kirk Cousins Silence the Doubters?

"You like that?!"

I apologize, but there really was no other way to commence this piece.

Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings are coming off another solid season despite a lackluster playoff showing. Last year, they won 13 regular season games for only the second time this millennium.

People do not often admit it, but Cousins is a quality quarterback and was responsible for a fair portion of the Vikings' success in 2022. Last season, Cousins ranked among the top-five in all major traditional passing statistics: completions (424), yardage (4,547) and touchdowns (29).

The fact that Justin Jefferson plays in Minnesota certainly does not hamper Cousins' quest for an MVP award. Jefferson's first three seasons in the NFL have each ended with him logging at least 1,400 receiving yards. "Captain Kirk" obviously had a hand in that high-level production.

The NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have Cousins at +5000 to win the AP NFL MVP award in 2023, tying him with with Trey Lance for the 19th-best odds. Considering Lance may not play all that much in 2023, Cousins looks like a decent value at that price.

What are Cousins' MVP chances?

Why Kirk Cousins?

For starters, the NFC North should be easier now with Aaron Rodgers gone. That's a positive for Cousins' MVP chances as it gives him a decent chance to win the division, something that is almost required for an MVP winner. Every MVP since 2008 has won his division in his MVP-winning season.

As mentioned, Cousins turned in a really nice 2022 season. While advanced metrics didn't rate Cousins as highly as the traditional stats did, Cousins showed he could put up good numbers on a winning team. That's usually the first step in any signal-caller's path to the MVP.

Cousins also plays with maybe the best wideout in the game -- Justin Jefferson. That certainly doesn't hurt things. Jefferson's abilities continually provide a home-run threat for Cousins as well as giving Cousins a clear number-one target to lean on.

Speaking of the weapons in the Vikings' offense.

The Vikings' 2023 Offensive Outlook

The Vikings did well to acquire tight end T.J. Hockenson midseason in 2022. Hockenson had 519 yards and 3 scores while catching 69.8% of his targets in his time with Minnesota.

Minnesota also added a serious playmaker via the 2023 NFL Draft. With the 23rd overall pick, the Vikings selected Jordan Addison. A star wide receiver at both the University of Pittsburgh and USC, Addison won the 2021 Biletnikoff Award while playing for the former. His skillset of sharp route running and reliable hands will likely make him a ready-made replacement for Adam Thielen, who is now with the Carolina Panthers.

I've mentioned Jefferson's name multiple times already, but there truly is no overstating a player of his talents. Jefferson can line up anywhere in the formation and wins routinely against whatever defense he faces. Possessing incredible burst, Jefferson will look to build off last year's league-leading 1,809 receiving yards.

Running back Dalvin Cook was waived prior to the start of the 2023 season, but Minnesota seems to be comfortable going forward with their younger options. Alexander Mattison will likely see the bulk of the carries, and he's shown well when given touches, racking up 6.3 yards per carry across the last two seasons.

Time To Shine in NFC North

For the first time in his six years playing for the Vikings, Cousins has a shot to be the best quarterback in the division.

As noted earlier, Rodgers has departed Green Bay in Brett Favre-fashion, leaving Cousins to compete with Jordan Love, Jared Goff and Justin Fields. It's fair to say that Cousins has the most reliable track record of consistent, NFL-level production of those three.

This division is wide open.

The Detroit Lions are +145 favorites to win the NFC North, according to the NFL division winner odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. That +145 number is the worst for any division favorite, so, as I said, the division is wide open.

Conclusion

Kirk Cousins is a proven quarterback in this league. Additionally, he is on a solid team in the NFC as the Vikings have the sixth-best odds (+1400) to win the conference.

Minnesota boasts an elite-level weapon in Jefferson while Hockenson and Addison should combine with Jefferson to give Cousins a quality group of pass-catchers.

Cousins has always been an accurate passer, amassing a 67.8% completion rate over 4,866 career attempts. That is top-level precision.

With Rodgers now a member of the New York Jets, the NFC North is wide open. The Vikings should be confident about winning their second consecutive division crown despite a scrappy bunch in Detroit, and while he would likely need to post career-best numbers in 2023 to win the MVP award, Cousins taking a step forward this fall isn't entirely out of the question.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.