NFL Futures to Bet Entering Week 5: Can the Colts Hold On to Win the AFC South?

Betting futures is a fun way to follow the NFL season.

From NFL awards markets to Super Bowl odds to NFL division odds, there are plenty of markets to dig into.

Heading into this week, which NFL futures bets are on my radar at FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's dive in.

Note: All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Best NFL Futures Bets Before Week 5

Colts to Win the AFC South (+105)

Through four weeks, the AFC South is shaping up to be a two-team race between the Indianapolis Colts (+105) and Jacksonville Jaguars (+125). Both are among the biggest surprises in the NFL thus far, each sitting at 3-1. I'm not sold on either squad being a real AFC contender. But between the two, the Colts' early-season success is a little easier to buy into.

Indy has the league's second-best schedule-adjusted offense. Daniel Jones has been legitimately good, and he and coach Shane Steichen are cooking. The Colts rank second in passing offense and fourth in rushing offense. Pretty much everything checks out on that side of the ball -- with the caveat that it's still just a four-week sample.

Jacksonville is being carried by its defense. The Jaguars sit second in adjusted defense, including second against the pass. But some of the Jags' defensive success is tied to turnovers, something that isn't usually sticky long term. Through four weeks, Jacksonville has racked up an eye-popping 13 takeaways, three more than any other team. I'm not sure that'll last. They're averaging 3.3 takeaways per game; no team has averaged more than 1.9 takeaways per game across the last five seasons.

The Jaguars have also benefitted from facing Bryce Young, a half-plus of Jake Browning, a rusty/hobbled Brock Purdy and the putrid O-Line of the Houston Texans.

On top of that, I trust Daniel Jones more than Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville's D is covering up for an offense that is 19th overall and 21st through the air. Lawrence ranks next to last in completion percentage over expected among QBs with at least 100 drop backs. He's also 19th in EPA per drop back among that same subset of 26 signal-callers.

While the Colts suffered their first loss of the campaign in Week 4, that game impressed me more than some of their wins. Indianapolis competed well on the road against a good Los Angeles Rams team and might have won the game if Adonai Mitchell didn't drop the ball before the goal line.

With Indy losing last week while the Jags picked up a road win at the San Francisco 49ers, that creates a nice window to back the Colts at plus money. Also, the Colts are home favorites (-6.5) against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5 while the Jaguars are home 'dogs (+3.0) against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Colts will no longer be at plus money if they win and the Jags lose.

Jets Over 4.5 Wins (-170)

It's not going to feel good to back the New York Jets in any way right now, but I like them to get at least five wins.

The Jets can't get out of their own way through four weeks. They sit dead last in turnover differential (-7) and have not yet registered a takeaway. When you couple the turnover issues with the Jets just not being that good in the first place, you get an 0-4 team.

But there's some bad luck involved with the turnover problems. Six of the Jets' seven turnovers are lost fumbles. They're losing 1.7 fumbles per game. Since the 2020 season, there's been only one team to lose over 1.0 fumbles per game, and that was -- of course -- the Jets at 1.1 lost fumbles per game in 2023. In short, things probably won't continue to be this bad in the turnover department, and they'll get a takeaway on defense at some point.

The Jets also have some very winnable games on the schedule, including home bouts against the Dallas Cowboys, Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns as well as a road game versus the Cincinnati Bengals -- and that's over just their next five games. Later this year, they have home dates against the Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots in addition to a road game at the New Orleans Saints.

Given the Jets' friendly schedule over their next five games, there's a chance things are about to trend up for them, and that makes now a good time to jump on the over on Gang Green's win total.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.