NFL

NFL Betting: Is Russell Wilson Due for a Bounce-Back Season With the Steelers in 2024?

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
NFL Betting: Is Russell Wilson Due for a Bounce-Back Season With the Steelers in 2024?

Before the frenzy that is the legal tampering period began in the NFL, the Pittsburgh Steelers signed Russell Wilson following his recent release from the Denver Broncos. Wilson spent two seasons with the Broncos -- and one under head coach Sean Payton -- and was let go before the five-year, $242.5 million extension he signed in 2022 even kicked in.

In the hopes of reviving his career, Wilson inked a one-year, $1.2 million contract to play for the Steelers in 2024. The expectation is for Wilson to be the starting quarterback next season despite former first-round pick Kenny Pickett still being on the roster.

With the new league year beginning in the NFL on March 13 -- and players already agreeing to deals with new teams -- FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a "Player Specials" market where you can wager on newly signed or traded players to achieve certain stat thresholds next season. Taking that into account, let's look at Wilson's odds and outlook for the 2024 campaign with the Steelers.

Russell Wilson Betting Odds

Russell Wilson 2024-2025 Regular Season Specials
Odds
Russell Wilson to throw 25+ Regular Season Passing TDs+175
Russell Wilson to throw for 3500+ Regular Season Passing Yards+210
Russell Wilson to throw 30+ Regular Season Passing TDs+470
Russell Wilson to throw for 4000+ Regular Season Passing Yards+650
Russell Wilson to throw 35+ Regular Season Passing TDs+1200
Russell Wilson to throw for 4500+ Regular Season Passing Yards+2400
Russell Wilson to lead the NFL in Regular Season Passing TDs+3500
View Full Table

Russell Wilson Outlook in 2024

From a pure numbers standpoint, Wilson didn't have an entirely dreadful 2023 campaign in his lone year under Payton, recording 3,070 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. At the same time, Wilson logged the fewest intended air yards per attempt (7.5) of his career since NextGenStats began tracking that metric in 2018.

The advanced numbers also weren't kind to Wilson, who tallied a forgettable -0.13 expected points added per drop back last season before being benched. As time passed throughout the 2023 season, one thing became very apparent: Payton and Wilson weren't going to be a match moving forward.

By signing with the Steelers ahead of the 2024 season, Wilson is hoping things will be different with head coach Mike Tomlin and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Smith's offense is predicated on running the ball successfully and creating explosive plays in the play-action game, though we didn't see much of it during his tenure with the Atlanta Falcons -- partly due to the quarterback situation.

With Desmond Ridder making 13 starts at quarterback for the Falcons a season ago, he had the 14th-most play-action attempts (124), via PFF. If you were to combine Ridder's 124 play-action attempts and the 36 play-action attempts by Taylor Heinicke, Atlanta's quarterbacks had the fourth-most play-action attempts among signal-callers last season.

While Wilson did have a shaky campaign to end his time with the Broncos, he did record the fourth-most passing touchdowns (11) and just one interception on 102 play-action attempts in 2023. Having George Pickens and potentially Diontae Johnson -- who has been the subject of trade rumors -- to target could be major positives for Wilson in his 13th season.

Seeing that Wilson's "Player Specials" market begins with him posting 25-plus passing touchdowns next season, it should be noted that he's hit that mark in nine of his first 12 years in the league, including last year. Meanwhile, the former third-round pick has eclipsed 3,500 passing yards in only six of his first 12 seasons.

Coming off a disappointing season, it's tough to expect Wilson to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns or passing yards. On the other hand, adding Wilson could certainly give the Steelers a much-needed upgrade at quarterback with Pickett being unproductive early in his career.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.