NCAA Tournament Betting Picks: Target the Over for Gonzaga vs. Purdue

Very few things on the sports calendar can match the excitement and unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament. So why not add betting to the mix via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The 2024 edition of the big dance has arrived, and here at FanDuel Research, we'll have you covered with a betting guide for each game.

Entering the Sweet 16 portion of the NCAA Tournament, there are a handful of must-watch matchups, including the upcoming clash between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the Purdue Boilermakers on Friday. Before the Bulldogs and Boilermakers tip off on Friday, which bets should you be interested in?

All college basketball odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and lines may change after this article is published.

NCAA Tournament Betting Picks

Gonzaga vs. Purdue Betting Odds

Date and Time: Friday, March 29th at 7:39 p.m. ET

Spread: Purdue -5.5 (-110)

Total: 154.5

Moneyline:

• Gonzaga: +188
• Team: -230

Gonzaga vs. Purdue Statistical Breakdown

Advanced stats from KenPom, Bart Torvik and numberFire.

Gonzaga Bulldogs

• numberFire Ranking: 16th
• Bart Torvik Ranking: 14th
• KenPom Ranking: 15th
  • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 46th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 9th
  • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 83rd

Purdue Boilermakers

• numberFire Ranking: 2nd
• Bart Torvik Ranking: 3rd
• KenPom Ranking: 3rd
  • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 21st
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 4th
  • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 175th

Gonzaga vs. Purdue Best Bet

Over 154.5 (-115)

When Gonzaga and Purdue faced each other back in November, there were only 136 total points scored in the contest. But this time around, I'm expecting a high-scoring affair between two teams who are extremely efficient.

Even with the Boilermakers being 168th in adjusted tempo (67.6), via Bart Torvik's stats, Purdue is 13th in effective field-goal percentage (56.0%) and Gonzaga is eighth in effective field-goal percentage (56.7%). Efficiency isn't an issue for either of these teams.

Throughout the first two rounds of the tourney, Gonzaga is converting an impressive 55.9% of their shots from the field and 50% from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Purdue is making 52% of their shot attempts and 42.6% of their shots from three-point range across their first two games in the tournament.

Zach Edey has contributed 23-plus points and 14-plus rebounds himself in each of Purdue's first two contests. On the other hand, the Bulldogs have four players who record 12-plus points per game, and they likely want to make this a pace-up game to make Edey remain active on defense.

Gonzaga has also recorded the second-most double-digit scoring runs per game (1.06), via Evan Miya's team ratings. This is notable due to this game being one that could emulate a back-and-forth boxing match, with both teams delivering haymakers.

The Boilermakers are an overall 23-12 to the over and 6-3 to the over in games at a neutral site. It also feels good that Bart Torvik's game projections have this game finishing with a score of 82-77, which would clear the projected total of 154.5.

Gonzaga vs. Purdue Prop Bet

Ryan Nembhard Over 7.5 Assists (-104)

Taking a prop of over 7.5 assists in college basketball is certainly risky given the volatility of roles and minutes for players due to various factors. However, Ryan Nembhard (12.6 PPG, 6.9 APG) has a solidified role as the primary facilitator for Gonzaga.

Despite registering a 19.7% usage rate, Nembhard leads the Bulldogs in assist percentage (29.0%). Of the players on Gonzaga's roster that has played in 30-plus games this season, Anton Watson (14.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG) has the second-highest assist percentage on the team at 13.7%.

Ahead of Friday's bout, Nembhard has dished out eight-plus assists in eight of his last 11 contests, including in each of his last five outings. With Nembhard notching double-digit assists in four of his last five games-- and the over being an enticing bet in this game -- he can certainly achieve eight-plus assists versus Purdue.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.