NCAAB

NCAA Tournament Betting: NC State vs. Texas Tech State Picks, Prop Bets and Odds

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath@ffaidanmcgrath

Very few things on the sports calendar can match the excitement and unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament. So why not add betting to the mix via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The 2024 edition of the big dance has arrived, and here at FanDuel Research, we'll have you covered with a betting guide for each game.

The North Carolina State Wolfpack put together an impressive stretch during their ACC Championship run, pulling off upsets against some of the NCAA Tournament's top contenders along the way. Can they keep their hot streak going against a Texas Tech Red Raiders team dealing with injuries? Or will NC State finally fall back down to Earth?

All college basketball odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and lines may change after this article is published.

NCAA Tournament Betting Picks

NC State vs. Texas Tech Betting Odds

Date and Time: Thursday March 21st, 9:40 p.m. ET

Spread: Texas Tech -4.5 (-110)

Total: 145.5

Moneyline:

  • NC State: +162
  • Texas Tech: -196

NC State vs. Texas Tech Statistical Breakdown

Advanced stats from KenPom, Bart Torvik and numberFire.

NC State

  • numberFire Ranking: 60th
  • Bart Torvik Ranking: 61st
  • KenPom Ranking: 57th
    • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 91st
    • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 47th
    • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 138th

Texas Tech

  • numberFire Ranking: 28th
  • Bart Torvik Ranking: 29th
  • KenPom Ranking: 25th
    • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 48th
    • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 23rd
    • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 233rd

NC State vs. Texas Tech Best Bet

Texas Tech -4.5 (-110)

Pretty much any way you slice it, the Red Raiders performed like a better team than the Wolfpack this season. They spent their winter cutting their teeth against some of the toughest teams in college basketball, and on first glance, they seem like a team that should be able to comfortably bounce NC State in the first round.

According to numberFire's model, Texas Tech boasts a solid 58.3% chance of defeating NC State. They rank favorably on both offense and defense, according to both numberFire's schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics as well as KenPom's numbers.

While there is no exact "transitive property" for college basketball outcomes, the Red Raiders did post some favorable outcomes against teams the Wolfpack struggled with during the season. Notably, NC State lost to BYU by 9 points earlier in the season -- the same BYU team that Texas Tech toppled twice by 7- and 14-point margins. And while both NC State and Texas Tech beat Vanderbilt, NC State's 6-point win paints a much different picture than Texas Tech's convincing 22-point margin.

NC State is -- rightfully -- getting a lot of respect for their ACC Tournament run. During their run to the conference tourney title, they dispatched both North Carolina and Duke -- teams that look like legit title contenders heading into the NCAA Tournament.

That said, it's fair to point out just how crazy hot the Wolfpack were during that run. Against UNC, they posted a 60.8% effective field goal percentage -- for comparison, Stephen Curry with the Golden State Warriors has a 57.2% mark in that stat this season. NC State has been on a red-hot heater, but they are a prime candidate for regression.

Finally, last week, NC State was rewarded for their impressive streak by having to play five games in just five days -- they'll be coming off of four days of rest heading into Thursday's tilt, but it's fair to question if they'll be at 100% by tip-off.

By comparison, Texas Tech's Big 12 tournament semifinal loss to Houston -- arguably the best team in the nation -- means they'll have relatively fresh legs for Thursday's contest. That extra rest could give starters Darrion Williams and Warren Washington the time they needed to recover from injuries.

Even with Williams and Washington sidelined, most of the core of Texas Tech's scorers should be good to go for Thursday night. Pop Williams has enjoyed a breakout second season while averaging 15.9 points a night and is flanked by two other starters averaging double-digit points per game.

Texas Tech should be able to top NC State in this one, even if the Wolfpack's offense stays hot.

NC State vs. Texas Tech Prop Bets

D.J. Burns Over 12.5 Points (-114)

In NC State's recent run, getting the ball to power forward D.J. Burns has been a focal point of the offense -- he has double-digit field goal attempts in six of their last seven games. He has averaged 16.0 points per game in those outings, well above this 12.5-point line.

The 6'9", 260-pound forward could have an especially nice night if Texas Tech's duo of Williams and Washington remain sidelined -- though we won't know their availability for sure until closer to tip-off. Without those two in the front court, Texas Tech's lineup has been lacking a little in height, with reserve-turned-starter Robert Jennings measuring in at a team-high 6'7".

Texas Tech will need all the size it can muster to cope with Burns, but even if Washington and/or Williams suit up, Burns can net 13-plus points.

Pop Isaacs Over 16.5 Points (-114)

The Red Raiders have leaned heavily on Isaac's scoring ability this season and should continue to do so against the Wolfpack. His 29.6% usage rate leads Texas Tech by a wide margin and is the highest mark of any player on either team.

Isaacs is averaging a team-high 14.1 field goal attempts per game, putting him in prime position to score buckets.

NC State's defense has struggled lately versus quality guards. They just allowed 30 points to UNC guard R.J. Davis as well as 17 and 23 points to Virginia guards Reece Beekman and Isaac McKneely, respectively.

Isaacs should be able to hit the over on 16.5 points.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.