NBA Betting Picks, Player Props, and DFS Plays for Monday 1/15/24

Martin Luther King Jr. Day always brings us a full slate of NBA action, and today is no exception.

Using the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, let's take a look at some of the best bets, prop picks and DFS plays across Monday's NBA action. In all, today's NBA slate features 11 games, with tip times ranging from 1 p.m. ET to 10:30 p.m. ET.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Houston Rockets at Philadelphia 76ers (1 p.m. ET)

Under 228.0

In the first game of the day, numberFire's model loves the under, projecting the clash between the Houston Rockets and Philadelphia 76ers to total just 219.6 points.

Both Philly (fourth) and Houston (ninth) sit in the top 10 in adjusted defensive rating, per Dunks & Threes. In addition to that, neither team plays all that fast, with the Rockets 22nd in pace and the Sixers 12th.

Each of the Rockets' past two games have gone under 228.0 points -- and by a lot, with the games totaling 218 and 220 points. It's the same story for the 76ers as their previous two contests have resulted in 197 and 207 points. The Sixers haven't scored more than 110 points in any of their past four games.

Also, the Sixers may get back Joel Embiid, who is listed as questionable after a full practice on Sunday. Embiid's presence could be good for the under as he can help limit Alperen Sengun, one of the Rockets' key offensive pieces. While the 76ers' offensive rating is 122.7 with Embiid on the floor -- compared to 117.3 when he's off -- the offensive rating of their opponents goes from 114.1 when Embiid if off the court to 110.6 when he's on the floor.

Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers (7 p.m. ET)

Cavaliers -4.0

There's a lot to like about getting the Cleveland Cavaliers as just a 4.0-point home favorite against the Chicago Bulls.

By adjusted net rating, the Cavs are quite a bit better than the Bulls. Cleveland's adjusted net rating is +2.3, the 10th-best clip in the NBA. Chicago, meanwhile, sports a net rating of -2.3, which ranks 24th.

The Cavs are spearheaded by their D, a unit that ranks fifth-best by adjusted defensive rating. That Cleveland defense should be a big hurdle for a Bulls team that sits just 23rd in adjusted offensive rating.

The home/road splits also point toward the Cavaliers. Cleveland is 13-8 at home while Chicago is a 6-12 on the road.

numberFire projects the Cavs to win by a score of 108.6-101.2 and gives them a 57.8% chance to cover the 4.0-point spread.

NBA Prop Bets

Kyrie Irving Under 33.5 Points (-105) -- 2:30 p.m. ET

Luka Doncic is doubtful, so we should get another game of Kyrie Irving running the show for the Dallas Mavericks.

It's safe to say Irving has seen an increased workload without Luka over the past two games. In those games, Irving has taken 27 and 26 shots, including 14 and 10 three-pointers, and it's led to outings of 44 and 33 points. As a result, his points prop has climbed up to 33.5 points.

But there are reasons to think Kyrie can't keep it up.

In 313 minutes with Luka off the floor this season, Irving's usage rate is 30.3% -- per RotoGrinders' CourtIQ -- which isn't much different than his season-long usage rate of 29.6%. With Luka off the court this season, Irving has scored 28.5 points per 36 minutes -- just 1.0 point more than his mark of 27.5 points per 36 minutes with Doncic on the court.

On top of all that, there's the matchup versus the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pels have been tough on point guards lately, giving up just 23.5 points per game to the position over the last 15 games (the seventh-fewest). New Orleans is good on D overall, too, sitting seventh in adjusted defensive rating.

While it's scary to bet the under on Kyrie -- a guy with a deep arsenal of moves -- when Luka is out, I think that's the side to be on. numberFire's model pegs Irving for 29.8 points.

Devin Vassell Over 19.5 Points (-118) -- 3:30 p.m. ET

This afternoon's San Antonio Spurs-Atlanta Hawks matchup should be a high-scoring affair, and the 245.5-point over/under tells us as much.

I think Devin Vassell could feast.

The Hawks struggle against two-guards, permitting 24.2 points per game to the position -- the fourth-most -- over the last 30 games.

San Antonio is expected to have their key pieces -- including Victor Wembanyama -- available today. Sharing the court with Wemby results in fewer looks for Vassell, but Vassell is still averaging 21.3 points per 36 minutes in the split. He also nails 2.5 triples per game alongside Wembanyama, something that can help him get to this over.

My biggest fear here is the spread, which is 8.0 points in favor of the Spurs. But as long as San Antonio can keep it competitive and Vassell gets his full run, the over looks like a solid bet.

numberFire has Vassell forecasted for 21.0 points.

NBA DFS Picks

FanDuel's main slate starts at 7 p.m. ET.

Guards

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,400) -- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is listed as questionable. If he's good to go, he can have a day against the Los Angeles Lakers, a team that has allowed the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to point guards over the last 30 games (52.3). SGA is coming off an outburst of 66.7 FanDuel points, and on this five-game night, he has the upside to break the slate in a game with a 238.0-point total and 1.0-point spread.

Kris Dunn ($5,300) -- As of early Monday, we don't have a ton of value on this slate. Kris Dunn is an appealing way to save salary in what should be the DFS game of the night between the Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers (245.5-point total and 6.5-point spread). Dunn has held onto a starting job, although his minutes aren't rock solid. Still, in a date with an Indiana squad that is fifth-worst in defensive rating and first in pace, Dunn should be able to produce.

Wings

Jayson Tatum ($10,000) -- The Boston Celtics have so many quality pieces that they cannibalize each other's ceilings for DFS. There's an opportunity tonight for Boston to put up a lot of points today against a Toronto Raptors team that is just 18th in adjusted defensive rating and no longer employs OG Anunoby. The spread is 7.0 points, too, so Boston's stars should get their full run. That gives Jayson Tatum solid upside, and if Jaylen Brown -- who is questionable -- sits, Tatum's upside gets a boost.

Lauri Markkanen ($8,900) -- Lauri Markkanen is another way to get a piece of the Jazz-Pacers affair. The Pacers have given up the most FanDuel points per game to power forwards (53.9), and they're on the second leg of a road back-to-back. Markkanen has gone for at least 49.0 FanDuel points in three of his past five games.

Bigs

Nic Claxton ($7,500) -- Both Nicolas Claxton and Bam Adebayo ($9,100) are viable in the Brooklyn Nets-Miami Heat matchup. Given the salaries, I side with Claxton, who numberFire projects for 36.8 FanDuel points (4.91 per $1,000). He brings top-tier blocks/steals upside to the table every time out, and he just racked up six combined blocks/steals two games ago.

Jalen Smith ($5,000) -- Jalen Smith isn't projecting all that well, but I'm intrigued by him as a way to get in on the Jazz-Pacers game. Smith has been starting of late, logging at least 25 minutes in three of his past four appearances. Plus, with Indiana on the second leg of a back-to-back, it wouldn't be surprising to see them sit a player or two, which could put more work on Smith's shoulders. He's someone who is on my radar tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.