NBA Betting Picks, Player Props, and DFS Plays for Friday 12/29/23

We've got a 10-game NBA slate today. In this piece, we'll look at some of today's best bets -- including player props -- as well as the top NBA DFS plays of the slate.

Which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

New York Knicks at Orlando Magic

Knicks Moneyline (+100)

The New York Knicks (17-13) will visit the Orlando Magic (18-12), and we should trust the Knicks to come out on top.

New York has a better net rating (9th-best in the NBA) than Orlando (11th-best). New York's net rating is made up of the 9th-best offensive rating and 16th-best defensive rating. The Magic struggle with the 10th-worst offensive rating but have the 5th-best defensive rating.

Orlando is winning games due to their rock-solid interior defense. They limit opposing power forwards and centers to the sixth-fewest and fourth-fewest points per game.

But when it comes to containing opposing guards, the Magic are much more vulnerable. Their guards come into tonight with the league's 14th-worst defensive rating.

Enter Jalen Brunson, the star of the Knicks who leads his team in Player Impact Estimate (PIE), a stat that accounts for just about everything in the box score. New York's top-ranked offense is run by and through Brunson, so he should be able to make a meal out of the Orlando guards tonight.

But it doesn't stop at Brunson. Out of the top six players who lead the Knicks in PIE, just one is either a power forward or center (Julius Randle). And though Randle will be limited inside the paint, he can shoot from outside, so he's not completely reliant on creating offense down low.

Plus, the Knicks are scoring the ninth-fewest paint points per game, so they aren't exactly a team that is dependent on an offensive spark from this area.

The Magic are 4-7 against teams that rank in the top 10 of offensive rating. I think the Knicks have the edge on them tonight.

NBA Player Props

Shai-Gilgeous Alexander Under 38.5 Pts + Reb (-115)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 36.9 combined points and rebounds (PR) this season and is in for a tough matchup against the Denver Nuggets.

The Nuggets cede the 8th-fewest points and 10th-fewest rebounds to point guards per game. Denver also has the eighth-best defensive rating and let up the third-fewest points per game.

Denver's interior D has not been kind to SGA, who scores 52.1% of his points in the paint.

In two games against the Nuggets this season, SGA is averaging just 21.0 PR. Now, one of these contests featured the worst shooting performance in the MVP candidate's career (12.5% field-goal percentage), which we can't expect to repeat itself. But it is nice to know that the Nuggets have held SGA well below tonight's 38.5 PR threshold.

numberFire is projecting just 33.0 PR from SGA tonight, which leaves us with plenty of wiggle room when siding with the under.

Kyle Kuzma Over 21.5 Points (-111)

Kyle Kuzma is in need of some regression, and I think he has a bounce-back game in him tonight against the Brooklyn Nets.

On the season, Kuzma is averaging 22.5 points per game, but across his last three games, he is averaging just 12.7 points.

The Washington Wizards play at a league-high pace, so the player who leads the team in field-goal attempts (18.7 FGA per game) should be a consistent 22-plus point scorer. In fact, Kuzma is just one of two Wizard players to average double-digit FGA -- he has no business averaging just 12.7 points across his last three.

But I think his recent struggles take a turn for the better against a Brooklyn team that gives up the second-most points to small forwards per game.

Kuzma nets 30.3% of his points from behind the arc, and the Nets surrender the fourth-most three-point makes (3PM) to small forwards.

Washington has a 118.5 implied team total tonight. In 16 games where the Wizards have scored at least 118 points, Kuzma is averaging 24.6 points.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

De'Aaron Fox ($10,300) --The Sacramento Kings-Atlanta Hawks battle provides us with a slate-high 251.5-point total and 1.0-point spread, making it the juiciest game on the slate. If I'm forking up salary for anyone tonight, it has to be De'Aaron Fox. Fox has netted 50-plus FanDuel points in more games than not this season and will now get a chance to shine against a Hawks team that lets up the ninth-most FanDuel points to point guards. His 68.1-point ceiling this season came in a game that was decided by eight points and touted a 249.0 game total -- we can't be surprised if we see similar results tonight.

Derrick White ($8,000) -- The Boston Celtics have yet to release today's injury report, but we should expect one of either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown to be on there in what will be the second night of a back-to-back for Boston. If either Tatum or Brown sits, then Derrick White slides in as a viable option, notwithstanding the salary that is catching up with his performance. White is averaging 43.6 FanDuel points across his last seven contests. He grabbed 51.9 FanDuel points in Tatum's absence last week against the Kings, so we should be high on him if either Brown or Tatum sits.

De'Anthony Melton ($6,900) -- With Joel Embiid out, it seems right to target an alternate Philadelphia 76ers player to do work in his absence. In five Embiid-less games this season, De'Anthony Melton is averaging 35.7 FanDuel points, which is an 8.3-point increase from his FanDuel point average this year.

Wings

Kyle Kuzma ($7,500) -- After three straight dud performances, we can get Kuzma on a bargain deal. His 60.8-FanDuel point ceiling is exciting at this salary, especially given that his competition for tonight gives up the 2nd-most FanDuel points to his position. The salary paired with the matchup makes him a must-play in my book, especially if his recent play deters the public from a high rostership rate.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($7,000) -- We can't draft everyone in this juicy Kings-Hawks game, but Bogdan Bogdanovic could be the best way to get a solid piece of the Hawks while also maintaining enough salary to get to either Fox or Sabonis. Bogdanovic has topped 40.0 FanDuel points in 3 out of 10 of his December contests, including a 53.1-point outing. Since I prefer De'Aaron Fox over Trae Young, Bogdanovic becomes one of the better stacking options for this game.

Cameron Johnson ($5,800) -- Cameron Johnson is a scorer, and that's about it. He doesn't provide us much in any non-point stat category, but I am still interested in him as a lower-salary option. He's averaging 26.2 FanDuel points and will be granted a matchup against a Wizards team that allows the most FanDuel points to his position.

Bigs

Domantas Sabonis ($10,400) -- At these salaries, we'll have to pick our poison between Fox and Domantas Sabonis. If you opt for lower-salaried guards, it could be well worth it to get to Sabonis. He's averaging 46.5 FanDuel points this season and 51.1 FanDuel points across his last five games. The Hawks surrender the sixth-most FanDuel points to centers, and with a sky-high game total, it's hard not to like Sabonis to go off tonight.

Nick Richards ($6,300) -- If Mark Williams is ruled out for the Charlotte Hornets, then consideration must be given to Nick Richards. Richards is averaging 35.6 FanDuel points across his last three games and should, if anything, see an increase in his usage now that Gordon Hayward has joined a medley of injured Charlotte starters. At this salary, Richards is in no world viable if Williams suits up, but without Williams, he becomes a solid play.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.