MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Marlins-Mets (6/12/24)

The lengthy MLB season can cause some games to get lost in the shuffle, but MLB.TV provides fans with a Free Game of the Day throughout the regular season that can also be seen on FanDuel TV+ here, or also available on Apple TV, Roku, Android TV, Fire TV, and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Why not add to the viewing excitement by getting in on the MLB odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook?

For this article, we've got you covered with a betting guide for each Free Game of the Day. With that, let's take a look at some of the best bets for today's free game.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Marlins vs. Mets Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
• Spread: Mets -1.5 (+140)
• Total: 7.5
• Moneyline:
  • Marlins: +126
  • Mets: -148

Best Bet

Marlins Under 3.5 Runs (-113)

The New York Mets (28-37) and Miami Marlins (23-43), a pair of struggling NL East teams, will square off for today's Free Game of the Day.

Last year, Miami managed a winning record for the first time since 2009 (not including the shortened 2020 season), dating back to when this team was still known as the Florida Marlins.

The franchise has swiftly transitioned back into treacherous territory, and I'm expecting their offense to ride the struggle bus in tonight's matchup.

David Peterson will be on the bump for the Mets. Peterson was activated from the IL in late May and has since made two starts for New York, posting a combined stat line of 11 2/3 IP, 4 ER, and 5 Ks.

The early days of the 2023 season were not kind to Peterson, but a demotion to the minors and subsequent recall back to the majors has unearthed a solid starter.

Since June 27th of last year, which marked his return to the majors, Peterson owns a 3.33 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, and 24.4% strikeout rate. He's been surrendering only 0.97 home runs per nine innings and generates an intriguing 55.8% ground ball rate and just a 25.0% fly-ball rate.

The lefty could find success against a dormant Miami lineup.

Coming into the night, Miami sports a .220 BA (27th), .318 SLG (30th), .262 wOBA (30th), 68 wRC+ (30th), and .098 ISO (30th) versus left-handed pitchers. It truly doesn't get worse than that.

The Marlins are also producing a league-high 52.3% ground ball rate and do not have a single player that owns a .732 OPS or better against lefties.

Past Peterson, New York's bullpen cedes just 0.94 HR/9 (eighth-best). Reed Garrett (2.53 xERA), Sean Reid-Foley (2.76 xERA), and Danny Young (1.0 ER through 9 IP) could help take this game to the finish line.

The Marlins have scored under 3.5 runs in 60.6% of their total games and 68.9% of their road games. With -113 odds available (53.1% implied probability), I'm keen on backing a quiet night for the Fish.

Best Prop

David Peterson Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-156)

Peterson averaged 95.4 pitches per start across his final eight outings of the 2023 season. He's only gone for 86 pitches (5 innings) and 81 pitches (6 2/3 innings) through two starts this year, but he could have a longer leash in what will be his third start back from the IL.

This could especially be the case given the ultra-friendly matchup.

Miami's league-worst .262 wOBA and league-high 52.3% ground ball rate against lefties indicate that Peterson could be flying through batters in this one.

I also see little risk for a long ball, as Miami's power marks against lefties include a league-low .318 SLG and .098 ISO. As mentioned, Peterson is skilled at limiting power and forcing a high ground ball rate, so I would be surprised to see him get yanked for any performance issues. He looks primed to pitch past the fifth inning tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.