MLB

2023 MLB Home Run Derby: Betting Odds, Matchups, How to Watch

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD

Eight of the league's biggest bats square off tonight in the 2023 T-Mobile MLB Home Run Derby.

Let's run through how to watch the derby, the overall odds, and all four of the first-round matchups -- touching on each player's chances of taking home the million-dollar prize.

All betting odds from via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Home Run Derby: How to Watch

  • TV: ESPN
  • Stream: ESPN+
  • Time: 8 p.m. EST

Home Run Derby Betting Odds

Player
Odds
Pete Alonso+320
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.+350
Luis Robert Jr.+400
Julio Rodriguez+500
Adolis Garcia+700
Randy Arozarena+950
Mookie Betts+1800
View Full Table

Home Run Derby Bracket

1. Luis Robert (-250) vs. 8. Adley Rutschman (+198)

Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert leads things off as the No. 1 overall seed in this year's derby. Robert is in the midst of a career year and is tied for third in the bigs with 26 home runs. He can absolutely crush the ball -- ranking in the 88th percentile with a 113.6 MPH max exit velocity. Robert has a smooth, compact swing that makes him an obvious candidate to win the derby.

As for Adley Rutschman, the Baltimore Orioles' slugger will be the first catcher since 2021 to participate in the derby. Rutschman has only 12 homers on the year, and he's the biggest underdog in the field. That said, he did just hit the longest home run of his career (464 feet) on the final day before the All-Star break.

2. Pete Alonso (-170) vs. 7. Julio Rodriguez (+138)

Pete Alonso is back, seeking his third Home Run Derby title. After 26 first-half home runs, Alonso is the overall favorite and No. 2 seed. However, he will first have to get past the same man who upset him in the semifinals last season, Julio Rodriguez. Alonso is built for this competition, although he has hit just six bombs since June 1st.

Rodriguez looks to become the first player since 2018 to win the Home Run Derby in his home ballpark. The Seattle Mariners' outfielder struggled out of the gates in 2023, and he has only 13 homers this season. That said, J-Rod led the field in total homers in last year's competition before losing in the finals. Despite his measly 13 home runs this year, he ranks in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity (92.8 MPH) and the 97th percentile in max exit velocity (115.5 MPH). He notably defeated Alonso 31-23 in last year's semifinals and will have the homfield advantage.

4. Adolis Garcia (-144) vs. 5. Randy Arozarena (+118)

Texas Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia has parlayed a career year into a Home Run Derby appearance. Garcia is tied for sixth in the majors with 23 home runs this season. He boasts an eye-popping baseball savant page, sitting in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity (92.2 MPH) and the 96th percentile in max exit velocity (115.1 MPH). He's shown the ability to get hot in short order, recording a three-home run game earlier this year.

Randy Arozarena will likely be a trendy sleeper pick tonight given his reputation for showing up on the biggest stage. The 2020 ALCS MVP and unanimous All-World Baseball Classic Team member has hit 16 homers this season. Like his first-round opponent, Arozarena is a Statcast darling, ranking in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity (92.9 MPH) and the 93rd percentile in max exit velocity (114.3 MPH).

3. Mookie Betts (+172) vs. 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-215)

Mookie Betts was a surprise addition to this year's field. The 30-year-old has played in seven consecutive All-Star games, but this will be his first Derby appearance. Despite being tied for third with 26 home runs thus far, Betts is a first-round underdog and has the second-longest odds to win the Derby. However, Betts has been on fire of late -- racking up 13 homers since June 1st and leading the majors with four multi-home run games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may have only 13 homers this season, but he's the second-biggest first-round favorite. Vladdy's stats haven't properly reflected how well he's hitting the ball this season. Per baseball savant, Guerrero Jr. is in the 98th percentile in both average exit velocity (94.3 MPH) and max exit velocity (116.7 MPH). This will be his second derby appearance after he set a record for most home runs in a single round (40) back in 2019.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.