MLB

MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 7/7/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 7/7/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs

Over 9.0 Runs (-110)
Seiya Suzuki to Record 2+ Bases (+115)

The Los Angeles Angels and Chicago Cubs have battled wind these past two days to post well below this total, but slightly favorable wind and poor pitching should buck that trend Sunday.

L.A. turns to Jose Soriano, who doesn't care much for the wind direction. Soriano's 60.7% groundball rate is as good as it gets. The problem is just about everything else. The Angels' righty is 40th percentile or worse in strikeout rate (K%), hard-hit rate allowed, barrel rate, and average exit velocity. If he's not working down in the zone, he's likely getting shelled.

On the other side, Chicago is sending Hayden Wesneski to the slab, who has been as ineffective as a 4.80 expected ERA (xERA) would suggest. His 10.8% barrel rate allowed is in the bottom 10% of baseball, and he's ceded 1.80 HR/9 so far. The Angels have also been sneaky good against righties in the past month (110 wRC+).

Add in two bottom-10 bullpens (by xFIP) in the past 30 days, and we're cooking with gas to put runs on the board.

Chicago's Seiya Suzuki is looking to contribute toward his teams total after an 0-for-4 outing yesterday. Suzuki, though, has really excelled against right-handers like Soriano, posting a 124 wRC+ and .267 ISO against them in the past month. Importantly, Suzuki's manageable walk rate (8.4%) usually won't let free passes get in the way of a base prop.

Our daily MLB projections have Suzuki pegged for 2.02 median total bases on Sunday.

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers

Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)

At long last, we're starting to see Nathan Eovaldi regain some of the form that ultimately turned the Texas Rangers into World Series champs last fall.

Eovaldi's last outing against the red-hot San Diego Padres was a gem. He tossed seven scoreless innings with six punchouts and completed a third straight start over 90 pitches. He's finally put injury behind him to a point where we can confidently target props.

The right-hander's xERA is down to 3.45 with exceptional whiff (27.8%) and strikeout (24.8%) rates. His fastball velocity (95.5 mph) is also humming at his normal speed once more.

Though there is a bit of juice on this strikeout prop, it may not be enough. FanDuel Sportsbook lists "Nitro" with -178 odds to complete 6.0 innings, and he'll pile up whiffs along the way if that's the case. The opposing Tampa Bay Rays have a 23.9% strikeout rate against righties in the past 30 days (tied for 11th-highest in MLB).

Our projections have Eovaldi pegged for 5.6 strikeouts on Sunday in 5.5 innings. With extra length that's been the trend recently, I'll side with the over.

Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies

Royals Over 5.5 Runs (-115)

Coors Field has been an antidote for offensive woes its entire existence, but the Kansas City Royals just can't seem to figure it out. They've tallied just 3 runs in 18 innings across this weekend series thus far.

That could change in earnest on Sunday. The Colorado Rockies are desperate for a starter and will turn to Tanner Gordon for his MLB debut on Sunday. I'm not sure Gordon's promotion comes on merit, per a 5.47 xFIP in Triple-A thus far in 2024. He's also coughed up 2.41 HR/9 in the minors entering a date at Coors Field with Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez. Zoinks.

Working behind Gordon is a bullpen that has posted the seventh-worst xFIP this month (4.38). If there's a day that K.C. was going to bust out of their funk, it would be today.

numberFire is projecting 6.76 runs from the Royals on Sunday, which would cash this mark with ease.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

Padres -1.5 (+125)
Jurickson Profar to Record 2+ Bases (+125)

From start to finish, the San Diego Padres will have a pitching advantage today to wash out the bad taste of yesterday's extra-inning loss.

San Diego sends their ace, Dylan Cease, to Petco's bump, and Cease is also looking for a personal rebound after ceding six earned in 3.2 innings against the Rangers earlier this week. The Arizona Diamondbacks are no slouch, but Cease's 3.65 xERA, .219 expected batting average against (xBA), and 31.0% strikeout rate are all 60th percentile or better across baseball.

I certainly just favor his chances more than Arizona's Ryne Nelson, who has been gobbled up in 2024. Nelson's 4.97 xERA, .293 xBA, and 42.6% hard-hit rate allowed are all 20th percentile or worse across MLB this season.

Plus, when you look at the relative reliever groups, San Diego's (3.67 xFIP) has vastly outperformed Arizona (4.52) over the past 30 days. The D-Backs' pen has the fifth-worst xFIP in baseball in that time.

For that reason, I'm looking at Jurickson Profar to, similarly to Suzuki, shake off yesterday's o-for. Profar has mashed righties like Nelson recently, compiling an .801 OPS and .215 ISO against them in the past month. As always, we want to check the walk rate for a base prop, and Profar's (8.3%) isn't extremely high in this sample.

We've got Profar projected at 2.29 median total bases despite extreme plus money on this line.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.