MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 9/14/23: Two Totals Too Low

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From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

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Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays

Over 7.5 (-115)

Don't look now, but the Texas Rangers are heating back up.

After their 10-0 win yesterday, Texas has now won the first three games of their four-game set with the Toronto Blue Jays, outscoring them 26-7 in the process. While they draw Toronto's ace tonight, they're looking the part of a matchup-proof lineup like they were earlier in the season.

That isn't to say the Rangers had completely fallen off a cliff prior to this week. For the season, Texas still ranks fourth in wRC+ (114) and third in both wOBA (.339) and ISO (.192) against right-handed pitchers. In fact, they've actually improved slightly over the second half, upping both their wOBA (.340) and ISO (.197) against righties since the All-Star break.

They'll need to bring it tonight, however, with Kevin Gausman toeing the rubber for Toronto. Gausman has been tremendous this season, let's not kid ourselves. He comes into tonight with a 3.21 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 31.5% strikeout rate -- both near the top of the leaderboards.

However, Gausman also allows high barrel (10.0%) and hard-hit rates (44.1%), both of which are in the bottom 20% of the league. That bodes well for a Rangers offense that boasts the sixth-highest barrel rate (9.2%) and third-highest hard-hit rate (41.8%) for the season.

It doesn't hurt that Gausman hasn't been at his best over the second half. Fresh off his worst ERA month of the season in August (4.23), Gausman lasted just 4.0 innings against the lowly Colorado Rockies. Though, he bounced back with 8 innings of one-run ball in his most recent start. Still, he's given up three-plus runs in five of his nine starts since the All-Star break. The Rangers have the bats to make that 6 of 10.

On the other side, we're banking on the Blue Jays waking up their bats and at least putting up some resemble of a fight in the series finale. Though they've scored just 7 runs through the first three games, they'd otherwise hit well following Bo Bichette's return to the lineup on August 19th. Since then, Toronto ranks 10th in both wOBA (.341) and ISO (.187).

They'll take on Rangers' starter Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi was masterful in the first half of the season but will be making just his third start since returning from the injured list. He looked shaky in his first two (albeit short) starts, allowing eight hits, four runs, and walking three in just 3.2 combined innings.

Additionally, we don't need either starter to completely fall apart to hit this over set at just 7.5 runs. I'm not expecting fireworks, but it won't take much for these two high-profile offenses to combine for eight runs.

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies

Rockies Over 3.5 Runs (-140)

No, the Colorado Rockies don't boast a particularly lethal offense.

And yes, the San Francisco Giants are starting their ace, Logan Webb, tonight.

So what if Webb tossed 6 scoreless innings against the Rockies just last weekend? Who cares that he threw a complete game shutout against them in July?

The Rockies are at home. When the Rockies are at home, they're going to score at least four runs, regardless of who's pitching. They average 5.2 runs per game at Coors Field and have gone over 3.5 runs in 13 of their last 15 home games.

Even in a tough matchup, they're going to put up runs.

That happened the only time Webb had to pitch at Coors back in June. In a 5-4 Rockies win, Webb gave up 8 hits and 4 runs in just 5.1 innings of work.

In general, Webb has been a different pitcher on the road. He's running an ugly 4.58 ERA away from Oracle Park compared to 2.37 at home. Webb's allowed a .315 wOBA on the road (compared to .259 at home) and has allowed a 35.7% rate of hard contact on the road (compared to 30.5% at home).

We aren't getting a ton of value here, but given their recent track record at home and Webb's road struggles, it's hard not to feel confident about the Colorado offense tonight. Consequently, I also don't mind sprinkling in Rockies ML (+205) for a little more juice, but the safer play remains with their team total.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.