Miami Open Betting Guide: Tuesday 3/26/24

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Miami Open Betting Guide: Tuesday 3/26/24

Following an exciting Indian Wells, we get another premier American tennis tournament with the Miami Open.

We're into the second week of the event, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Miami Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Tuesday's matches?

Miami Open Best Bets

Casper Ruud vs. Nicolas Jarry

Ruud -2.5 Games (-112)

Similar to yesterday, value could lie in a match where the favorite is facing an opponent who is more formidable on clay than on hard courts.

Over his career, Nicolas Jarry has won three singles titles, all of which have come on clay. Most notably, he's posted a 60.4% career win percentage in clay matches, whereas his win rate on hard courts dips to just 41.9%.

While he's performed much better on hard courts over the last 52 weeks (60.0% win rate), his up-and-down 2024 has mostly followed his career script.

Jarry's best result this season has been a deep run at Buenos Aires -- a clay event -- in which he defeated the mighty Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals. In contrast to that, he was bounced in his opening matches at both the Australian Open and Indian Wells, two premier hard-court tournaments. His overall record this campaign sits at 10-7.

While the 28-year-old has done well to win his two Miami matches, it hasn't exactly been smooth sailing, going to a final set against both Jack Draper and Thiago Seyboth Wild. He's already exceeded six and a half hours of court time.

World No. 8 Casper Ruud hasn't quite finished the deal at any of his tournaments in 2024, but it's hard to complain about an 18-4 record that includes finals appearances at Los Cabos and Acapulco, as well as advancing to the quarterfinals at Indian Wells. Unlike Jarry, Ruud has also spent his entire season on hard courts thus far.

Ruud has also mostly cruised in his Miami matches, coming in just over three and a half hours of total playing time. There's no question that he's the more well-rested player.

Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings are bullish on Ruud, projecting him to win 74.2% of the time. Given both past and current trends, this looks like a modest spread for the Norwegian player to cover.

Alex de Minaur vs. Fabian Marozsan

de Minaur 2-0 Sets (-115)

We find Alex de Minaur as a -315 favorite in this one, and it's well-deserved given his strong start to 2024.

The Australian has gone 19-5 thus far (all on hard courts), most notably winning a title at Acapulco (over the aforementioned Casper Ruud) and finishing runner-up at Rotterdam. He also advanced to the round of 16 at both the Australian Open and Indian Wells.

Three of de Minaur's last four losses have come against top-six opponents (Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, and Andrey Rublev), further suggesting that world No. 57 Fabian Marozsan will have his work cut out for him.

While Marozsan has actually put up a 3-1 career record versus top-10 players -- most recently beating Holger Rune here in Miami -- his 21-17 career record and 10-8 mark this season show that he hasn't quite been able to put it all together consistently.

As the low match total would suggest, the 24-year-old hasn't even been competing in ATP Tour-level matches very long, either, as he was mainly playing in Challenger tournaments as recently as last summer.

Tennis Abstract's forecast loves de Minaur, projecting an 82.6% win probability, which is even higher than his implied odds of 75.9%. While backing him to cover -3.5 games (-134) is an option, I like the added value in betting a straight-sets victory.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.