Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 1

The Western Conference Finals are here, and we couldn't have picked two more deserving teams to represent the conference at this stage. The Minnesota Timberwolves will host the Dallas Mavericks for Game 1 in what should be an excellent start to the penultimate stage of the 2023-24 NBA Playoffs.

The Timberwolves opened their playoffs up with a clean sweep of the Phoenix Suns -- who competed in the Western Conference Finals a year ago -- and are now fresh off of an exciting back-and-forth seven-game series win over the reigning NBA champs. They certainly have inertia backing them as they enter this year's WCF as favorites.

The Mavericks have had a bumpier road on their way to the conference finals but have been no less deserving of their spot. They overcame the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round before dismantling the one-seed Oklahoma City Thunder in six games. Luka Doncic hasn't slowed down at all after leading the league in points per game during the season (33.9) and has averaged almost a triple-double a night in the playoffs, with 27.3 points, 9.7 boards, and 9.1 assists per game.

But can Luka keep up his insane production against the best defense in the league? Or will the Timberwolves take them down on their way to the franchise's first NBA Finals appearance?

Let's check out the NBA Odds market on FanDuel Sportsbook and see how bettors are looking at Game 1 of this exciting series.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Betting Odds

Date and Time: Wednesday May 22nd, 8:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Timberwolves -4.5 (-108)

Total: 206.5

Moneyline:

• Mavericks: +158
• Timberwolves: -188

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

• Dallas Mavericks:
  • nERD: 57.1 (12th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.5 (7th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 115.3 (18th)
  • Pace: 100.4 (8th)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 48-34-0
• Minnesota Timberwolves:
  • nERD: 70.9 (3rd)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 115.0 (17th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 108.9 (1st)
  • Pace: 97.7 (22nd)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 40-41-1

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Best Bet

Mavericks +4.5 (-112)

While the Timberwolves recorded a 3-1 record over the Mavericks during the season, it should be pointed out that their sole loss happened to come in the only game that featured both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving on the Mavericks' side. The Mavs won that one 115-108 over a healthy Wolves team -- before they even traded for PJ Washington or Daniel Gafford.

That one happened to be played in Dallas, and this one will be played in Minnesota, but the Mavericks have been a relatively road-agnostic team this year as they went exactly 25-16 both at home and on the road during the regular season. That odd split has carried over into the postseason, where they're 4-2 in home games and 4-2 in away games.

Only the Orlando Magic (51-31-0) and Philadelphia 76ers (48-33-1) had better records against the spread than the Mavericks did during the year (48-34-0), while the Wolves were just 40-41-1 in that regard. The Wolves certainly look like the better team on paper, but the Mavericks have had more than a couple of tricks up their sleeves this postseason.

While the Mavericks' two biggest losses have come in series-opening road games, I think they'll match up well against the Wolves tonight. Doncic and Irving have the ability to score even against elite defenses and scored a combined 69 points against the Wolves in their January victory over the them.

The Timberwolves claimed victory over MVP center Nikola Jokic and his reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets last week but will now need to change gears and figure out how to defend two of the most creative -- and lethal -- playmakers in the game. I think the Mavericks will keep this one close and cover while the Timberwolves adjust their approach.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Prop Bet

Anthony Edwards Over 28.5 Points (-104)

The only player still going in the playoffs who has averaged more points per game than Doncic (27.3) is none other than Timberwolves breakout star Anthony Edwards. Edwards has turned it up a notch in the postseason and is averaging 28.9 points a night in the playoffs after posting 25.9 per game during the year.

Edwards is dialed in right now. He's draining threes at a .398 clip, up from .357 in the regular season.

To their credit, the Mavs have really tightened up on defense in the postseason, but they still allowed Thunder star scorer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to record 32.2 points per game against them during their recent series, with no fewer than 29 points in any game.

During the season, the Mavericks gave up the fifth-most points per game on fast breaks (15.7). With real stakes on the line, that number has dropped to a more respectable 12.3 points per game allowed off of opposing fast breaks, but their 12% turnover rate on offense has led to them giving up 16.4 points per game off of turnovers -- the fourth-most of any playoff team and by far the most of any team left standing.

That could leave them susceptible to Minnesota's tight defense, and Edwards' 19 steals are the most in the playoffs so far. He's averaging 6.5 points per game in transition, as well, so he's converting his fast break opportunities into points at a solid rate.

Edwards has truly shined in Game 1 of each of the Timberwolves' first two playoff series. Against the Suns, he dropped 33 points in their dominant 25-point win. And against the Nuggets, he popped off for a whopping 43 points. He seems to have no problem seizing the initiative while teams feel each other out, so I like his odds of beating his 28.5-point line in Game 1 tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.