Ja'Marr Chase Can Be WR1 in Fantasy Football This Season

Finding who will be the best option outside of Justin Jefferson in fantasy football drafts has been half the battle of preparing for the first round this year.

There's the debate of running backs going early or to keep favoring the elite receivers even after Jefferson is gone.

The answer, more often than not, is to favor the receiver. If you're looking at who should be the first person off the board following Jefferson, it's tough to pick anyone other than Ja'Marr Chase.

Here's a look at Chase's fantasy football projections and outlook for the season.

Ja'Marr Chase Fantasy Football Projection

(Projections via numberFire)

2023 Projected Points: 277.5 points
numberFire Positional Projection: WR2
2023 Projected Stats:

• 117 receptions
• 177.7 targets
• 1,496.4 receiving yards
• 11.4 receiving TDs

Ja'Marr Chase Fantasy Football Outlook

A Great Sophomore Season

There's really no question that Ja'Marr Chase is a stud -- a superstar, even. But seeing him deliver for a second-straight season as an elite receiver was all anyone needs to know he's going to be a star from here on out.

Despite injuries, Chase still finished as a top-12 receiver in just 12 games.

In those 12 games, the Cincinnati Bengals wideout finished with 87 receptions, 1,046 receiving yards, and 9 touchdowns. Chase averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game in half PPR -- the fifth-best among all receivers.

His connection with Joe Burrow is as lethal as any in football. The part to pay attention to is that Chase had more receptions in his sophomore year than his rookie campaign despite one being a full season and the other missing a quarter of the games.

Chase is on track to be a star with full health and even more targets set to come his way. Fantasy players should be buying in on this; a third-year boom very well could be on the way much like Jefferson had a season ago.

Third-Year Boom

The third-year boom for wide receivers is a real thing.

And oftentimes, it's all the more impressive for a receiver who has already showcased the skills that Chase has over his first two seasons.

You don't have to go that far back to see the latest player to have a huge third-career season. Justin Jefferson was that guy a season ago.

After a 276.4-point second season, he upped it to a 304.7-point season in year three with a WR1 finish as the best in fantasy football. He's certainly not the only one to do that.

Go back to Tyreek Hill's second-season to third-season bump. In year two of Hill, he had 201.7 fantasy points. In year three, it was all the way up to 284.5. Of course that was when there was a quarterback change and Patrick Mahomes took over, but it's a big deal nonetheless.

To take even a further step back into history, Mike Evans had 173.6 points in his second season before booming to a 256.1-point output in his third season in the league, which remains his best finish ever. There's a comfort level that wide receivers find in their third year, and that especially shows in fantasy. The leaps are huge, and Chase has to be the favorite to make the next step.

Chase had an outstanding rookie season with 264.1 points in 2021 -- good for 15.5 per game. He improved that in his 12 games last season, getting to 16.6 points per game. That's not bad for a guy that everyone was freaking out about in his first preseason as a rookie.

Add in that he had a 29.0% target market share in 2022, there is no reason to think that goes down with him being Burrow's favorite target any time they're out there. If anything, getting to play the full season will show what kind of player he is.

He's chasing his former LSU teammate to be the top guy, and while he still shouldn't be picked over him, there's no way we should be waiting too long on him either.

Final Verdict: Worthy of Going No. 2 in Fantasy Drafts

There's little you need to know when it comes to Ja'Marr Chase and how good he is at this point. He's a superstar, but don't be afraid to go and get him as early as possible.

We've all accepted by now that Jefferson is the 1.01, but there's no locked-in guarantee of who is going second. If you're someone who appreciates a great floor but also has the highest of ceilings as a pass-catcher, the only person who can match Jefferson feels like Chase this year.

Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp are also good options, but they feel like they have more risk with situations out of their control, which makes Chase all the more reliable and valuable in the end.

The competition for No. 2 overall is between Chase and Christian McCaffrey -- both being great options nonetheless -- but it's hard to go away from Chase in the year of wide receivers being the top dogs in the first two rounds specifically.

numberFire has Chase ranked as the WR2 heading into the year with 276.7 projected points. FantasyPros has Chase locked in with an average draft position (ADP) of 3.0, following Jefferson and McCaffrey. In FanDuel best-ball leagues, Chase has a 4.1 ADP, trailing the same two and Travis Kelce.

If you're towards the top of your draft and have a shot to take Chase, he's the type of guy who can not only live to the value at his lowest output but exceed the value and become the top guy in fantasy football.

Chase is worthy of consideration for every pick following 1.01. Don't miss out if you get a shot.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.