Italian Open Betting Picks: Wednesday 5/15/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Italian Open Betting Picks: Wednesday 5/15/24

Tennis' clay season continues as we work our way to the 2024 French Open later this month.

The Italian Open is underway, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Rome betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Wednesday's matches?

Italian Open Best Bet

Victoria Azarenka vs. Danielle Collins

Collins 2-0 Sets (+110)

Danielle Collins continues to play fantastic tennis in her final professional season and hasn't dropped a set yet at this tournament.

After benefiting from an injury-shortened win over Anna Blinkova, Collins defeated 23rd-ranked Caroline Garcia in routine fashion (6-3, 6-3) and then dominated Irina-Camelia Begu (6-0, 6-3).

Collins has now won 18 of her last 19 matches, with her lone loss coming against world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka in Madrid. Of her wins over this stretch, she's been taken to a deciding set just four times.

While Victoria Azarenka is fresh off a convincing win over world No. 8 Maria Sakkari (6-4, 6-1), she's otherwise struggled to make it to this point. In the previous two rounds, Azarenka needed to grind out three-setters (each with a tiebreak) against Mayar Sherif and Magda Linette, both players ranked outside the top 50. Victoria also didn't enter this event with nearly as much momentum as Danielle, having lost two of her last three and going just 3-2 on clay this season.

Tennis Abstract's model projects Collins to win this match 70.7% of the time, which is nearly identical to the American's implied odds as a -230 favorite (69.7%). Given that we're still getting plus odds for a straight-sets win, this looks like one of the better ways to get value backing the red-hot Collins.

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