Italian Open Betting Picks: Tuesday 5/14/24

Tennis' clay season continues as we work our way to the 2024 French Open later this month.

The Italian Open is underway, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Rome Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Tuesday's matches?

Italian Open Best Bet

Taylor Fritz vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Dimitrov ML (+126)

Grigor Dimitrov finds himself as the slight underdog against an in-form Taylor Fritz, but it could be worth taking a chance on him at these plus odds.

While Fritz has had an up-and-down campaign, there's no question that he's turned a corner during this clay season. After dropping his opening match in Monte Carlo, Fritz has advanced to the final in Munich and the semifinals in Madrid, and he now owns a 9-3 clay record in 2024.

Here in Rome, he's cruised to straight-set wins, facing just two break points total (and saving both). Fritz was especially impressive against world No. 27 Sebastian Korda, winning 90% of his first-serve points.

Dimitrov is a less spectacular 4-2 on this surface this year, but he's also performed well in his first two Italian Open matches. While the scores have been close, the Bulgarian also hasn't dropped a set, and he's faced just one break point.

Overall, it's hard to argue with Dimitrov's form this season at 24-7. He has four wins over top-10 players this year, and of his seven losses, five have come against players who are all presently in the top 15.

He's also enjoyed his fair share of success on clay in his career, owning a better clay win percentage (58.9%) than Fritz (56.6%). While these two have split their head-to-head at one apiece (both on clay), Fritz's win came way back in 2019, whereas Dimitrov won their most recent meeting in 2023.

Per Tennis Abstract's model, Dimitrov has a 52% win probability while Massey Ratings projects an even better 63%. Given that these +126 odds imply just a 44.3% win rate, the moneyline is looking like a value we should consider.

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