Italian Open Betting Picks: Saturday 5/11/24

Tennis' clay season continues as we work our way to the 2024 French Open later this month.

The Italian Open is underway, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Rome Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Saturday's matches? Note that play begins at 5:00 am ET due to a six-hour time difference.

Italian Open Best Bets

Jack Draper vs. Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev -1.5 Games (-124)

Jack Draper could be a future star in this sport, but injuries have often held him back over his young career, and he hasn't been able to quite take that next leap. While the 22-year-old enjoyed some success at the beginning of 2024 on hard courts, he's been up and down since the beginning of March, losing in the first or second round in four of his last five events.

Overall, Draper also hasn't found much success on clay when facing tougher competition, owning a 3-7 career clay record versus top-50 opponents and going 0-5 against the top 20. Three of those top-20 losses came just last month.

This all puts him in a tough spot against world No. 4 Daniil Medvedev. Although Medvedev has a reputation for disliking clay, he's more positive about the surface these days -- likely due in no small part to him winning the Italian Open last season.

While there is a slight worry that Medvedev enters this tournament at less than 100% after retiring in the Madrid quarterfinals, it sounds like it was due to precautionary reasons, and he's had over a week to recover. Prior to that retirement, he was 4-1 on clay this season with his only loss coming against a top-20 player (Karen Khachanov).

Even with some health uncertainty, this spread seems awfully small for the defending champion, and this looks like a buy-low opportunity. Tennis Abstract's model projects Medvedev to win 83% of the time, and Massey Ratings pegs him for a 76% win probability. A Medvedev straights-set win is also appealing to consider at +160 odds.

Jaume Munar vs. Cameron Norrie

Norrie -2.5 Games (-118)

Clay is by far Jaume Munar's best surface, yet that's not necessarily saying much because he performs so poorly on other surfaces.

Munar came into this event with a pedestrian 50.0% career clay win rate, but it's light years ahead of his play on hard courts (29.4%) and grass (18.2%). Despite playing the majority of his 2024 matches on clay, he's still just 10-11 this season after a win in the first round.

Cameron Norrie's best surface is clay, but in his case, he boasts an impressive 62.8% career win rate. While he's just 6-5 in clay matches this season, his last three losses have come to top-30 opponents in Karen Khachanov, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, and Casper Ruud. Munar is ranked 68th and has never cracked the top 50.

Tennis Abstract is forecasting a 65% win probability for Norrie while Massey Rating's model is at 63%. We should feel pretty comfortable backing him to cover this short spread.

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