Italian Open Betting Picks: Friday 5/10/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Italian Open Betting Picks: Friday 5/10/24

Tennis' clay season continues as we work our way to the 2024 French Open later this month.

The Italian Open is underway, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Rome Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Friday's matches? Note that play begins at 5:00 am ET due to a six-hour time difference.

Italian Open Best Bets

Nuno Borges vs. Alexander Bublik

Bublik ML (+122)

While Alexander Bublik doesn't exactly have the best history on clay courts, I like the value we're getting from these plus odds against an opponent with a career losing record.

Nuno Borges entered this tournament with a 26-37 record in ATP Tour matches, and he's below .500 in 2024. It's not like the 27-year-old has a notable track record on clay, either, owning a 42.9% career win rate.

Borges barely made it through his opening match, too, going three sets in a narrow 6-7, 6-4, 7-6 win over Pedro Martinez. Fatigue could be a factor after logging three hours and 38 minutes of court time.

Bublik comes in with a 16-9 record this season and is at the highest ranking of his career (17th). During the early hard-court season, he won a title at Montpellier and finished runner-up in Dubai. Although he found little success in more recent tournaments over the last couple of months, he did nab a pair of clay wins in Madrid before losing to an always dangerous Daniil Medvedev, which could be a positive sign that Bublik is finding his form again.

Despite Bublik also having a losing record on clay in his career (39.1% win rate), he's the far more accomplished overall player between these two, and models at both Tennis Abstract and Massey Ratings view him as the stronger option on this surface.

Tennis Abstract gives Bublik a 53% win probability while Massey Ratings' matchup tool spits out a 55% chance. Those marks are much higher than the 45% implied probability we're seeing at these +122 odds.

Danielle Collins vs. Anna Blinkova

Collins 2-0 Sets (-150)

Since Danielle Collins revealed that she will retire at the end of this season, she's played perhaps the best stretch of tennis in her entire career.

Prior to her loss in Madrid to eventual finalist Aryna Sabalenka, Collins was in the midst of a 15-match win streak that included titles in Miami and Charleston, with the latter being a clay event. Given that the American has a 63% win rate on clay over her career, per Tennis Abstract, there's little reason to think she can't go on a deep run here in Rome.

On the other hand, Anna Blinkova just broke a streak of her own -- but in her case, it was a five-match losing streak. Worse yet, the last three losses all came on clay against opponents ranked outside the top 130. While she did win in straight sets over Diane Parry in the first round, her recent play makes it hard to see her hanging with someone as dialed-in as Collins. Additionally, Blinkova has just a 44% career win rate on clay.

Tennis Abstract forecasts an 86% chance of victory for Collins. Massey Ratings' matchup tool views this as an even bigger mismatch at 91% and sees a straight-sets win as the most likely outcome. There isn't any value in taking Collins as a -410 moneyline favorite, but I can get on board with her winning this in straight sets at these odds (-150).

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