Indian Wells Betting Guide: Friday 3/8/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Indian Wells Betting Guide: Friday 3/8/24

Indian Wells -- aka the BNP Paribas Open -- is one of the world's most prestigious non-major tennis tournaments, often unofficially regarded as the "Fifth Grand Slam."

The opening rounds are already underway, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Indian Wells Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which second-round matches could have the most betting value on Friday.

Indian Wells Best Bets

Brandon Nakashima vs. Jiri Lehecka

Lehecka -1.5 Games (-110)

As the 32 seed, Jiri Lehecka was treated to a bye in the first round, so he should be well-rested for this match against wild card Brandon Nakashima.

It's worth noting, Lehecka retired due to injury in the Dubai quarterfinals just a week ago, but that was likely due to precautionary reasons after falling behind by a set and two breaks. There's nothing to suggest he's entering Indian Wells with any serious issues, though the extra time off can't be a bad thing.

The 22-year-old Czech player comes in with a 10-6 record this season -- all on hard courts -- and is a solid if unspectacular 22-18 on the surface over the past 52 weeks. But he's a player who could be trending in the right direction after taking home his first career title in January (Adelaide).

While Nakashima is the same age as his opponent, he isn't on the same upward trajectory, playing almost exclusively in Challenger-level events dating back to late 2023. In fact, he officially entered with a 0-0 ATP Tour record this season, as his first-round win over fellow American Chris Eubanks was his initial ATP-level win in 2024. That also marked just his second victory over a top-100 opponent this year. Nakashima's 93rd ranking is a far cry from his career high (43rd) in 2022.

Although Nakashima actually carries a 2-1 advantage in the head-to-head against Lehecka, the latter won their lone match in 2023 and the other two meetings came at the 2022 Next Gen ATP Finals, an unusual event where just four games win a set.

Per the Elo ratings on Tennis Abstract, Lehecka has a 62.4% win probability versus Nakashima. Given that Lehecka is a -130 ML favorite (56.5% implied win odds), there's value in backing him straight up if you want to go that route, but I like the added bang for our buck we're getting in what is a slight 1.5-game spread.

Yannick Hanfmann vs. Tallon Griekspoor

Griekspoor -3.5 Games (-102)

Like Lehecka, Tallon Griekspoor (27 seed) also enters the second round off a bye, and he has an identical hard courts record (22-18) over the last 52 weeks. Griekspoor is a respectable 8-5 to begin 2024, most notably making it to the semifinals at Rotterdam before falling to this year's Australian Open champion and World No. 3 Jannik Sinner.

But more than anything, siding with Griekspoor is about his matchup against Yannick Hanfmann. The German is just 4-7 this season, and most of his activity has been on clay surfaces, having last played on hard courts in a first-round loss to Gael Monfils at the Australian Open in mid-January.

And there's a good reason why Hanfmann has been spending more time on clay; over his career, he's amassed an abysmal 7-22 hard courts record. His first-round win this week was nothing to write home about, either, as he needed three sets to defeat Pedro Cachin, a player who has now lost 12 straight matches going back to last season.

Griekspoor should roll in this spot, and Tennis Abstract's model agrees, pegging him as the winner 78.2% of the time. While there isn't any value backing him straight up as a -230 favorite, a routine straight-sets win should cover this spread.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.