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How Does Tyreek Hill's Injury Impact the Dolphins in Fantasy Football?

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How Does Tyreek Hill's Injury Impact the Dolphins in Fantasy Football?

NFL players morbidly realize -- but suppress -- that their career can end on one play. The hope is that play well into an otherwise Hall of Fame-caliber career.

Tyreek Hill may have experienced that on Monday. Hill suffered a gruesome looking leg injury in the second half of the Miami Dolphins' win over the New York Jets and was in curiously high spirits for that being the case.

It didn't particularly need to be confirmed that Hill will miss the rest of the 2025 season and likely at least part of 2026 after the injury. What are the ramifications on the Dolphins in fantasy football?

Note: Scoring and rankings come from FantasyPros' half-PPR data.

Tyreek Hill's Dislocated Knee Injury

Initial testing has confirmed that Tyreek Hill dislocated his knee on the tackle, meaning that his patellar tendon was shifted. That also caused multiple ligaments to tear, including his ACL.

This is noteworthy because it's a more severe injury than just a standard ACL tear, which has become an 8-to-10-month rehab where players seem to eventually return to full speed. This dislocation is more similar to what we saw from top prospect Marcus Lattimore with the South Carolina Gamecocks in 2011 and Tank Dell of the Houston Texans last December.

At 31, Hill's speed was such a vital asset to his game that it is definitely a question of whether he plays an NFL down again. The star wideout has eclipsed 1,200 yards in five different seasons and helped the Kansas City Chiefs win a Super Bowl in 2020 as an electric part of Patrick Mahomes' early career. I don't think anyone would blame him for calling it a day after that one.

Jaylen Waddle Without Tyreek Hill

Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. That's why it's never a "waste" to have a talent like Jaylen Waddle as a top-10 draft pick or giving him $76 million guaranteed.

The sixth-year receiver had already closed the gap on Hill with a 19.0% target share through four games to Hill's 24.0%. This offense has evolved around the short passing game, so neither are the dynamic, downfield passing threats we once saw. Waddle's 8.2 average depth of target (aDOT) is proof of that.

Still, just stepping into Hill's role by itself is a boost. It's probably larger vacating his own without much proven talent on this Dolphins receiving corps. Waddle drew three targets in the fourth quarter alone after Hill departed, so his workload could be heavy.

Waddle's 9.8 fantasy points per game (FPPG) has been a bit of a letdown from his mid-round ADP. Though most managers realize this is Waddle's best-case scenario to perform, it might still be possible to acquire him for a wideout who appears like a better option in the box score right now.

De'Von Achane After Tyreek Hill's Injury

Miami's scoring unit has centered around De'Von Achane all year. That'll ratchet up without their best wideout.

Achane's 20.7% target share is second in the NFL to Christian McCaffrey among RBs, and he's ninth across the league in adjusted opportunities per game (25.0; carries plus 2x targets). In an effort to keep both him and Tua Tagovailoa healthy, a bulk of Achane's fantasy value comes from catching passes out of the backfield.

He handled 20 carries in Week 4, though. That happened to be Miami's first positive script of the season. I think it's more than fair to say that head coach Mike McDaniel, with roots from the San Francisco 49ers, views Achane as a lite version of McCaffrey -- and how the Niners use him -- in this offense.

That makes the outlook for Achane pretty much like CMC's in San Fran when someone goes down. His massive role usually gets a little better. If health is on Achane's side for the rest of 2025, it feels like he's a slam dunk for an RB1 spot even with Ollie Gordon II mooching goal-line work.

Tua Tagovailoa After Tyreek Hill's Injury

Waddle and Achane getting peppered are the easy part of the equation. "What does Tua look like without him?" is a much harder one.

Among qualifiers, Tua is 17th in the NFL in expected points added per drop back (0.03 EPA/db), according to NFL's Next Gen Stats. That league-average efficiency with next-to-no rushing upside is what makes him just 24% rostered in Yahoo leagues right now. He's an average quarterback who can be streamed in plus matchups. That was the case in Week 4 against the Jets.

Does Tagovailoa's outlook greatly change, though? My thinking is actually no. Tua's 6.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT) is third-lowest among QBs to start all four games. Speedster Malik Washington can do a lot of the same things in the short passing game, and he's only run 60.8% of the routes so far. He's a good substitute.

Really, Tua's best upgrade might have already come to fruition, and that's the big body in red zone he was missing without Jonnu Smith. Darren Waller caught a pair of touchdowns Monday in his season debut, and more passing volume in the red zone would be a must to morph Tagovailoa back into a weekly quarterback starter.

Miami continued to move the ball at will after Hill's injury, and this team -- perhaps partially due to Tyreek's behavior at the end of the 2024 season -- seems built to survive his absence.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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