NZ - Te Rapa - Race 8

Thoroughbred

16 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 6

20.6K

VIEW

Verdict

SCOLERA (9) returns from a short break after showing good form last campaign, including a strong placing at Ellerslie fresh up. She looked in good condition when winning a recent trial late last month, and with some luck, she can finish all over the top of her rivals late here. ERIN GO BRAGH (7) resumed with a fair effort at Ellerslie as the favourite when peaking late to finish sixth. She should strip fitter for that outing, and she has enough ability to give this a shake. Follow your money. TESTWIN (5) has an excellent fresh record and resumes off a handy trial placing ahead of this assignment. He has been patiently handled, and he demands plenty of respect. SHE'S ALL THAT (4) was disappointing here last start after a smart Trentham win two runs earlier. She is worth another chance, and despite her wide gate, she can easily bounce back into the money. JETHRO TULL (3) resumes from a spell with 2 trials under his belt, and he can play a part in the finish, so don't risk him.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
9	Has won previously first-up and resumes here after a break of three months. Finished off last preparation eighth of 10 at Trentham Rating 75 March 1 over 5 ½f, soft track, 6 len behind Party Rocking with 122lbs at $2.70. When resuming last campaign second of 13 at Ellerslie Rating 65 January 1 over 6f, soft track, 0.8 len behind Drops Of God carrying 127lbs at $6.80. Looks forward enough after a recent trial win. Everything points to a effective return. 1st Pick 9 Scolera Jockey: Samantha Collett Trainer: Jim Collett J: Samantha Collett T: Jim Collett	92	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Has won previously first-up and resumes here after a break of three months. Finished off last preparation eighth of 10 at Trentham Rating 75 March 1 over 5 ½f, soft track, 6 len behind Party Rocking with 122lbs at $2.70. When resuming last campaign second of 13 at Ellerslie Rating 65 January 1 over 6f, soft track, 0.8 len behind Drops Of God carrying 127lbs at $6.80. Looks forward enough after a recent trial win. Everything points to a effective return.
7	Second run back. First-up after five months 6th of 11 at Ellerslie on May 6 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Grinzinger Moon carrying 126lbs at $3.50. Previously second-up 12th of 14 at Pukekohe on November 22 over 7f, slow going 5.5 len behind Moxie with 130lbs at $4.10. Will take a lot from that run and looks tough to beat. 2nd Pick 7 Erin Go Bragh Jockey: Matt Cartwright Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Matt Cartwright T: Stephen Marsh	102	-	-	-	10%	9/1
Analysis Second run back. First-up after five months 6th of 11 at Ellerslie on May 6 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Grinzinger Moon carrying 126lbs at $3.50. Previously second-up 12th of 14 at Pukekohe on November 22 over 7f, slow going 5.5 len behind Moxie with 130lbs at $4.10. Will take a lot from that run and looks tough to beat.
5	Has won previously first-up and resumes here after a break of eight months. Finished off last preparation third of 14 at Arawa Park Rating 75 October 12 over 7f, soft track, 1.75 len behind Smart Love carrying 126lbs at $8.70. Previous preparation first-up to post a big 5 len win. Taupo August 17 over 6f on heavy track defeating Zenith carrying 127lbs at $4.60. Looks all set for a effective return. 3rd Pick 5 Testwin Jockey: Elen Nicholas Trainer: Guy Lowry & Leah Zydenbos J: Elen Nicholas T: Guy Lowry & Leah Zydenbos	52	-	-	-	8%	13/1
Analysis Has won previously first-up and resumes here after a break of eight months. Finished off last preparation third of 14 at Arawa Park Rating 75 October 12 over 7f, soft track, 1.75 len behind Smart Love carrying 126lbs at $8.70. Previous preparation first-up to post a big 5 len win. Taupo August 17 over 6f on heavy track defeating Zenith carrying 127lbs at $4.60. Looks all set for a effective return.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Exacta

A bet selecting the first and second horses in a race in the correct order. An exacta box refers to paying a little more to ensure they can finish in either order.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.