NZ - Te Rapa - Race 1

Thoroughbred

13 Runners

11.9f

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 8

20.5K

VIEW

Verdict

HEPHAESTUS (2) was under pressure and unable to run on at Pukekohe last time out over 1 5/16m, and for now, he may just be better racing in an anti-clockwise direction. Stepping out to 1 ½m is the key, and in a slightly easier field, he should bounce back and be hard to beat. TAUPO DANCER (4) can be a touch one-paced and is at his best when the tracks are wet. He will find the 1 ½m to his liking, and has Craig Grylls in the saddle, which is a strong lead in a field like this. Stick with him on an each-way basis. MY MAEBELLINE GIRL (6) has found some form again by setting up big leads early on in her races. She has been placed 3 times from 6 starts over this trip, and she will make it interesting for a long way. SPRING QUEEN (13) has needed her racing to get fit, and all of her form has been on this track, including a placing over this trip. She is now ready to put her best hoof forward. Include. PERSPECTIVE (3) has been hard to catch, but he is not out of this at odds.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Most recently 11th of 14 at Pukekohe on March 20 over 1 5/16m, 8 len behind Castle Rock carrying 131lbs at $6.80. The race before that took up a position near the tail 2nd of 13 at Trentham on March 1 over 1 5/16m, slow going 0.3 len behind Julianus with 129lbs at $5.40. Certainly worth another chance. 1st Pick 2 Hephaestus Jockey: George Rooke Trainer: Roger James & Robert Wellwood J: George Rooke T: Roger James & Robert Wellwood	110	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Most recently 11th of 14 at Pukekohe on March 20 over 1 5/16m, 8 len behind Castle Rock carrying 131lbs at $6.80. The race before that took up a position near the tail 2nd of 13 at Trentham on March 1 over 1 5/16m, slow going 0.3 len behind Julianus with 129lbs at $5.40. Certainly worth another chance.
4	Last start 6th of 10 at Trentham on March 21 over 1 5/16m, slow going 1.75 len behind Helluvah Return carrying 129lbs at $8.10. The start before that 4th of 13 at Trentham on March 1 over 1 5/16m, slow going 2 len behind Julianus carrying 129lbs at $12.20. Encouraging effort last start. Expected to do much better. 2nd Pick 4 Taupo Dancer Jockey: Craig Grylls Trainer: Kevin & Stephen Gray, Copper Belt Lodge J: Craig Grylls T: Kevin & Stephen Gray, Copper Belt Lodge	84	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Last start 6th of 10 at Trentham on March 21 over 1 5/16m, slow going 1.75 len behind Helluvah Return carrying 129lbs at $8.10. The start before that 4th of 13 at Trentham on March 1 over 1 5/16m, slow going 2 len behind Julianus carrying 129lbs at $12.20. Encouraging effort last start. Expected to do much better.
6	Form hard to fault. At the latest run 4th of 13 at Ellerslie on April 4 over 1m, on a slow track, 2 len behind Gippsy God carrying 121lbs at $12.70. The run before that led but faded 2nd of 14 at Pukekohe on March 20 over 1 5/16m, 1.75 len behind Castle Rock carrying 121lbs at $54.20. Best form stacks up nicely and deserves another chance. 3rd Pick 6 My Maebelline Girl Jockey: Joe Nishizuka Trainer: Kylie Little J: Joe Nishizuka T: Kylie Little	85	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis Form hard to fault. At the latest run 4th of 13 at Ellerslie on April 4 over 1m, on a slow track, 2 len behind Gippsy God carrying 121lbs at $12.70. The run before that led but faded 2nd of 14 at Pukekohe on March 20 over 1 5/16m, 1.75 len behind Castle Rock carrying 121lbs at $54.20. Best form stacks up nicely and deserves another chance.

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