NZ - Te Rapa - Race 1

Thoroughbred

7 Runners

11.9f

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 8

23.2K

VIEW

Verdict

WITH GRACE (4) was too strong late when scoring over 1 ½m here just over 3 weeks ago, and with the rise to a modest BM75 grade, she gets to carry 3lbs less. The hat-trick beckons. DANCIN IN THE DARK (2) won't lack fitness, and he will relish getting out to 1 ½m for this assignment. A wet track will help him, and he is expected to be fighting out the finish. CHARLBURY (3) should have gone close to winning last time out when held up at a vital stage in the run home. She will need luck again after drawing the pole position, but if she can have an uninterrupted run to the line, then she can win this. FLORIN (1) is a very versatile mare who has been kept busy lately. She is best when saved up for one sprint, and if she can see out 1 ½m, then she is right in this. NOVAK (5) ran a cheeky race at Ellerslie 8 days ago over 1 ?m, and he is some sort of top 4 home in this.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
4	Racing well recently. Most recently ran on from midfield and won by 0.8 len at this track on August 22 over 1 ½m in soft going defeating Sweet But Psycho with 126lbs at $9.10. The race before that came from midfield and won by 1.1 len at Ruakaka on August 1 over 1 5/16m on a soft track defeating Sweet But Psycho carrying 122lbs at $12.80. Going well and is among the better hopes. 1st Pick 4 With Grace Jockey: George Rooke Trainer: Kylie Hoskin J: George Rooke T: Kylie Hoskin	93	-	-	-	37%	7/4
Analysis Racing well recently. Most recently ran on from midfield and won by 0.8 len at this track on August 22 over 1 ½m in soft going defeating Sweet But Psycho with 126lbs at $9.10. The race before that came from midfield and won by 1.1 len at Ruakaka on August 1 over 1 5/16m on a soft track defeating Sweet But Psycho carrying 122lbs at $12.80. Going well and is among the better hopes.
2	Form hard to fault. Most recently 3rd in a small field at Ruakaka on September 2 over 1 5/16m, slow going 1.75 len behind Super Rosa with 127lbs at $3.90. The run before that 4th in a small field at Cambridge Synthetic on August 19 over 1 ¼m, 3.5 len behind Mulan Ardeche with 123lbs at $8.20. Top 4 chance. 2nd Pick 2 Dancin In The Dark Jockey: Erin M Leighton Trainer: Ralph Manning J: Erin M Leighton T: Ralph Manning	89	-	-	-	14%	13/2
Analysis Form hard to fault. Most recently 3rd in a small field at Ruakaka on September 2 over 1 5/16m, slow going 1.75 len behind Super Rosa with 127lbs at $3.90. The run before that 4th in a small field at Cambridge Synthetic on August 19 over 1 ¼m, 3.5 len behind Mulan Ardeche with 123lbs at $8.20. Top 4 chance.
3	Last start 4th of 7 at this track on August 22 over 1 5/16m, slow going 1.0 len behind Diamond Jak carrying 119lbs at $13.60. The run before that 5th of 9 at this track on August 8 over 1 5/16m, on rain affected going, 1.5 len behind Heza Sharp One carrying 119lbs at $8.60. Wasn't too far off the mark last time. One of the top 3 chances. 3rd Pick 3 Charlbury Jockey: Matthew Cameron Trainer: Catherine Cameron J: Matthew Cameron T: Catherine Cameron	147	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Last start 4th of 7 at this track on August 22 over 1 5/16m, slow going 1.0 len behind Diamond Jak carrying 119lbs at $13.60. The run before that 5th of 9 at this track on August 8 over 1 5/16m, on rain affected going, 1.5 len behind Heza Sharp One carrying 119lbs at $8.60. Wasn't too far off the mark last time. One of the top 3 chances.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bleeder

A horse that bleeds due to a ruptured blood vessel during a race or workout. The medication Lasix can fix this problem.

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A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

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