NZ - Te Aroha - Race 7

Thoroughbred

20 Runners

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 5

14.0K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

LITTLE THIEF (6) found the line nicely once clear at Avondale nearly 3 weeks ago, finishing fourth and not too far off the winner. He can settle a touch closer to the pace this time, and there will be no concerns with his fitness levels at his third run back from a spell. On top for us. BETHANY DEE (16) was terribly unlucky last time out over 6f, and finished eighth, but only 3 lengths from the winner at Avondale. She has a better gate this time, and the extra furlong is ideal, so give her another chance. CAPTAIN STAN (1) made up a lot of late ground fresh up here 15 days ago when finishing runner-up by 2 lengths. He is knocking on the door for his first win, so stick with him. BERTIE WOOSTER (18) wound up too late fresh up here just over a fortnight ago. He is likely to settle back again from a wide gate, but his first win is not far away. Each way value. HORRIE (2) set the pace and faded last time out. He may be ridden more quietly this time, and he is worth another chance.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
6	Third-up today. Resuming 8th of 12 at Ellerslie on September 20 over 6f, slow going 5 len behind Love Symbol carrying 129lbs at $10.90. Last start made ground from midfield, 4th of 14 at Avondale on November 6 over 7f, slow going 2.75 len behind Zerre carrying 129lbs at $11.60. Rates highly. Will be peaking third up, and can win this. 1st Pick 6 Little Thief Jockey: Vinnie Colgan Trainer: Joanne Surgenor J: Vinnie Colgan T: Joanne Surgenor	95	-	-	-	10%	10/1
Analysis Third-up today. Resuming 8th of 12 at Ellerslie on September 20 over 6f, slow going 5 len behind Love Symbol carrying 129lbs at $10.90. Last start made ground from midfield, 4th of 14 at Avondale on November 6 over 7f, slow going 2.75 len behind Zerre carrying 129lbs at $11.60. Rates highly. Will be peaking third up, and can win this.
16	Dual acceptor. Second-up. First start 7th of 13 at Ruakaka 2yo+ Mdn-Sw on July 12 over 6f, on heavy track, 4.5 len behind Iridescent with 125lbs at $48.50. Went for a break before returning from last on the turn 8th of 11 at Avondale on November 6 over 6f, slow going 3 len behind Yousito carrying 127lbs at $29.20. Rates highly and expected to improve sharply. 2nd Pick 16 Bethany Dee Jockey: Warren Kennedy Trainer: David Greene J: Warren Kennedy T: David Greene	85	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Dual acceptor. Second-up. First start 7th of 13 at Ruakaka 2yo+ Mdn-Sw on July 12 over 6f, on heavy track, 4.5 len behind Iridescent with 125lbs at $48.50. Went for a break before returning from last on the turn 8th of 11 at Avondale on November 6 over 6f, slow going 3 len behind Yousito carrying 127lbs at $29.20. Rates highly and expected to improve sharply.
1	Second-up. First-up after eight months 2nd of 13 at this track on November 11 over 5 ¾f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Rise Companions carrying 129lbs at $8.40. Previously second-up 2nd in a small field at Tauranga on January 10 over 6f, 0.8 len behind Atmospheric carrying 126lbs at $1.40. Further improvement in store. 3rd Pick 1 Captain Stan Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Stephen Autridge J: Non Runner T: Stephen Autridge	72	-	-	-	1%	1000/1
Analysis Second-up. First-up after eight months 2nd of 13 at this track on November 11 over 5 ¾f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Rise Companions carrying 129lbs at $8.40. Previously second-up 2nd in a small field at Tauranga on January 10 over 6f, 0.8 len behind Atmospheric carrying 126lbs at $1.40. Further improvement in store.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

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An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Mare

A female horse of five years or more.