NZ - Te Aroha - Race 3

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

17.4f

Maiden Steeple

Turf

SOFT 5

12.0K

VIEW

Verdict

LORD SPENCER (7) will be making his steeplechase debut, and he only knows one way to race, and that is to sky out to a big lead. If he can jump safely, then he will take some pegging back in this company. NIGHTFALL (5) is capable in this role, and he will be peaking third up from a spell. He benefits from a 7lbs claim, and if the track is heavy, he can run into the top 4 this time. COUNTRYMAN (2) has put up some big efforts in stronger fields in the past, and he ended his last prep with a string of minor placings. If he doesn't need the run, then he can figure in the top 4. ZAC FLASH (4) resumes with a couple of jumping trials under his belt. He has been placed in 4 of his 6 starts on this course, and he should be included in all top 4 combos. ODYSSEUS (3) is a tough gelding who was placed in his only steeplechase at the end of his last prep on this track. If ready, he is another with top 4 claims.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
7	Recent form hard to fault. Last outing finished fourth of 8 starters at Te Rapa on May 24 over 1 ¾m, on slow going 3.5 len behind Squire carrying 146lbs at $9. Before that came from midfield and won by 1.75 len Woodville on April 29 over 1m slow track defeating The Bambino carrying 143lbs at $21.10. Expected to return to form with that last run under the belt. 1st Pick 7 Lord Spencer Jockey: Lemmy Douglas Trainer: J J Rayner J: Lemmy Douglas T: J J Rayner	213	-	-	-	67%
Analysis Recent form hard to fault. Last outing finished fourth of 8 starters at Te Rapa on May 24 over 1 ¾m, on slow going 3.5 len behind Squire carrying 146lbs at $9. Before that came from midfield and won by 1.75 len Woodville on April 29 over 1m slow track defeating The Bambino carrying 143lbs at $21.10. Expected to return to form with that last run under the belt.
5	Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up came from midfield, finished 11th of 14 runners at Woodville on April 29 over 1m, slow track, 6 len behind Dubai's Potiki with 130lbs at $88. Last start finished sixth of 11 starters at Hawera on May 17 over 1 5/16m, slow track, 10 len behind Beetlegeuse carrying 141lbs at $46.60. Fitter now and making headway every start. All set to reverse the recent form. 2nd Pick 5 Nightfall Jockey: Billy Marshall Trainer: Niall Quinn J: Billy Marshall T: Niall Quinn	80	-	-	-	10%
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up came from midfield, finished 11th of 14 runners at Woodville on April 29 over 1m, slow track, 6 len behind Dubai's Potiki with 130lbs at $88. Last start finished sixth of 11 starters at Hawera on May 17 over 1 5/16m, slow track, 10 len behind Beetlegeuse carrying 141lbs at $46.60. Fitter now and making headway every start. All set to reverse the recent form.
2	Resuming today after nine months. Finished off last campaign 3 of 10 starters at this track September 21 over 2 ³/16m, in the wet, 3 len behind Justice carrying 150lbs at $3.70. First up last campaign 3 of 8 starters at Te Rapa May 24 2025 over 1 ¾m, slow track, 2.5 len behind Catch And Release carrying 148lbs at $36.20. Sure to be tough to beat. 3rd Pick 2 Countryman Jockey: Joshua Parker Trainer: Barry Beatson J: Joshua Parker T: Barry Beatson	44	-	-	-	19%
Analysis Resuming today after nine months. Finished off last campaign 3 of 10 starters at this track September 21 over 2 ³/16m, in the wet, 3 len behind Justice carrying 150lbs at $3.70. First up last campaign 3 of 8 starters at Te Rapa May 24 2025 over 1 ¾m, slow track, 2.5 len behind Catch And Release carrying 148lbs at $36.20. Sure to be tough to beat.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Claiming Race

A race in which horses are entered for a certain price, or claiming tag, which is also their sales price. An owner can claim any horse entered for the tag before the race begins, and owns them as soon as the gates open.

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.