NZ - Taupo - Race 6

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

9.9f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

10.8K

VIEW

Verdict

MUSTANG MORGAN (2) has found it hard to win another race, but is showing signs of improvement since relocating back to the NZ arm of the Forsman barn, finishing third as the favourite at Trentham just over 3 weeks ago. The step up to a middle distance is the key, and he is ready to win a race like this. SHAMWARI (4) won his maiden at his penultimate start, before having a tough trip and failing to fire last time out at Whanganui just over 5 weeks ago. The extra 2f is in his favour, and he is worth another chance. TAKE ON (6) has been a beaten favourite in all of his last 3 starts, finding the line too late on each occasion. If he strikes a wet track, he can figure in the top 3. Follow your money. INCREDIBLE (1) drops back in class after a couple of fair efforts at BM75 level further North. He is unbeaten in 2 starts on this track, and a form reversal is expected. TOP DOLLAR (5) battled on strongly for fourth at Trentham last start when looking for more ground. Stick with him.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up crossed from a wide gate to settle just off the pace but gave ground when 6th of 14 at Pukekohe on November 22 over 7f, on a slow track, 4 len behind Sista Sugar with 132lbs at $19.30. Last start sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 14 at Trentham on December 6 over 1m, slow going 0.9 len behind Knickerless with 132lbs at $3.70. Fitter now and making headway. Looks ready to win. 1st Pick 2 Mustang Morgan Jockey: Craig Grylls Trainer: Andrew Forsman J: Craig Grylls T: Andrew Forsman	125	-	-	-	37%	7/4
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up crossed from a wide gate to settle just off the pace but gave ground when 6th of 14 at Pukekohe on November 22 over 7f, on a slow track, 4 len behind Sista Sugar with 132lbs at $19.30. Last start sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 14 at Trentham on December 6 over 1m, slow going 0.9 len behind Knickerless with 132lbs at $3.70. Fitter now and making headway. Looks ready to win.
4	Comes off a 36 day let-up. Most recently 12th of 14 at Wanganui on November 22 over 1m, on a slow track, 11 len behind Blue Jeanie with 129lbs at $5.30. The start before that won by 3 len at New Plymouth Raceway November 5 over 1m defeating Rocka Philly with 129lbs at $4.70. Terrific chance to return to form. 2nd Pick 4 Shamwari Jockey: Joe Doyle Trainer: Mark Forbes J: Joe Doyle T: Mark Forbes	85	-	-	-	9%	11/1
Analysis Comes off a 36 day let-up. Most recently 12th of 14 at Wanganui on November 22 over 1m, on a slow track, 11 len behind Blue Jeanie with 129lbs at $5.30. The start before that won by 3 len at New Plymouth Raceway November 5 over 1m defeating Rocka Philly with 129lbs at $4.70. Terrific chance to return to form.
6	Last start from last on the turn 5th of 9 at Tauherenikau on December 10 over 1 ¼m, slow going 4 len behind Highly Lethal carrying 125lbs at $3.60. The run before that 6th of 16 at Riccarton Park on November 12 over 1m, on a slow track, 4 len behind Unleash The Beast carrying 129lbs at $4.60. Has ability and can run a forward race. 3rd Pick 6 Take On Jockey: Kelly Myers Trainer: Kevin Myers J: Kelly Myers T: Kevin Myers	218	-	-	-	9%	11/1
Analysis Last start from last on the turn 5th of 9 at Tauherenikau on December 10 over 1 ¼m, slow going 4 len behind Highly Lethal carrying 125lbs at $3.60. The run before that 6th of 16 at Riccarton Park on November 12 over 1m, on a slow track, 4 len behind Unleash The Beast carrying 129lbs at $4.60. Has ability and can run a forward race.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Maiden Race

A race exclusively for horses who have not previously won.

Lasix

A medication for the treatment of bleeding in horses that is legal in North America, but not all worldwide jurisdictions.

Breeder

The owner of a horse’s dam – or mother - at the time a horse is foaled.