NZ - Taupo - Race 4

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 5

17.5K

VIEW

Verdict

YOU SAY D'ORSAY (2) tried hard at Ellerslie a month ago when finishing sixth at G3 level nearly a month ago. Dropping back from a mile to 7f won't be a problem, and he is ready to win again, and at this level, he is the one to beat. NIGELLA LANE (1) finished third fresh up on a heavy track late last winter, and that effort may have flattened her. She was put aside after a further 2 starts, and she would be some chance here if the track was rain-affected. IMA BRAZEN ONE (3) had a tough trip at Trentham a fortnight ago and dropped out in the run home. The blinkers come off, and stepping up to 7f for the first time could make all the difference. He is worth another chance. BLISSFUL BELLE (4) finds it hard to win, and found the G3 Spring Sprint too tough last time out. She has a superior gate this time and can make amends. Include in all combinations. SUPER PHOTON (6) has needed both of his starts back from a spell, and a form reversal is on the cards here.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Comes off a 29 day let-up. At the latest run 6th of 10 at Ellerslie in the G3 Great Northern Challenge Stakes on November 29 over 1m, slow going 3.5 len behind Mary Shan with 121lbs at $9.80. The race before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 8 at Tauranga on November 15 over 7f, on a slow track, 2.25 len behind Mary Shan carrying 126lbs at $3.70. Sure to be in the thick of things again. 1st Pick 2 You Say D'orsay Jockey: Sienna Brown Trainer: Chris Wood J: Sienna Brown T: Chris Wood	88	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Comes off a 29 day let-up. At the latest run 6th of 10 at Ellerslie in the G3 Great Northern Challenge Stakes on November 29 over 1m, slow going 3.5 len behind Mary Shan with 121lbs at $9.80. The race before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 8 at Tauranga on November 15 over 7f, on a slow track, 2.25 len behind Mary Shan carrying 126lbs at $3.70. Sure to be in the thick of things again.
1	Resumes after a break of four-and-a-half months and has been in the money when fresh before. Finished off last campaign when last of 7 at New Plymouth Raceway August 16 over 1m, on heavy track, 7 len behind Rosetown Princess carrying 121lbs at $2.30. When resuming last campaign third in a small field at Arawa Park July 19 over 7 ¾f, in the wet, 6 len behind Diomedes with 128lbs at $3.10. Expected to feature. 2nd Pick 1 Nigella Lane Jockey: Rihaan Goyaram Trainer: Ralph Manning J: Rihaan Goyaram T: Ralph Manning	52	-	-	-	9%	11/1
Analysis Resumes after a break of four-and-a-half months and has been in the money when fresh before. Finished off last campaign when last of 7 at New Plymouth Raceway August 16 over 1m, on heavy track, 7 len behind Rosetown Princess carrying 121lbs at $2.30. When resuming last campaign third in a small field at Arawa Park July 19 over 7 ¾f, in the wet, 6 len behind Diomedes with 128lbs at $3.10. Expected to feature.
3	At the latest run 10th of 12 at Trentham on December 14 over 6f, 5 len behind Reward Smile with 121lbs at $9.20. The start before that 5th of 9 at Otaki on November 30 over 6f, 2 len behind Azeezle with 118lbs at $8.10. Better than recent form suggests and is right in contention. 3rd Pick 3 Ima Brazen One Jockey: Samantha Collett Trainer: Mike Breslin J: Samantha Collett T: Mike Breslin	94	-	-	-	16%	11/2
Analysis At the latest run 10th of 12 at Trentham on December 14 over 6f, 5 len behind Reward Smile with 121lbs at $9.20. The start before that 5th of 9 at Otaki on November 30 over 6f, 2 len behind Azeezle with 118lbs at $8.10. Better than recent form suggests and is right in contention.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Blinkers

A hood worn on a horse’s head to limit side vision, which can improve concentration. Blinkers are added or removed to relax a horse or give it more focus.

Objection

Claim of foul lodged by a jockey for perceived dangerous or illegal riding by a rival.