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6:45 AM

AU - Port Lincoln - Race 9

Thoroughbred
15 Runners
6f
Benchmark
Turf
SOFT 5
16.2K

All race stats and comments are provided by numberfire. Complex algorithms are used to calculate stats like the power rating. Numberfire picks are provided by horse racing experts that work with numberfire.

Verdict

OVER YONDER (1) is the one to beat after holding his form in BM68 Saturday company at Morphettville, where he was fifth to Delightful Shecky after jumping awkwardly, racing keenly and striking interference on the home turn. His third to Bred 'Em All two runs back reads well, the easier company suits, and the 3lbs claim helps offset the big weight. STRAWBERRY SWING (10) brings the clearest winning form from this track, having scored dominantly in BM54 grade on soft ground, though this is a stronger test. CHESTERAY (4) has to rebound from a plain run at the latest, but his prior win over 5f at this venue keeps him firmly in calculations. LAVA LAD (3) is another genuine danger with two wins and two placings from nine starts at this track and distance, and he looks well placed third-up after closing off from well back in BM64 grade last start.
numberFire Picks
Horse Stats
#/SilkHorse#/HorsePower RatingHigh SpeedWin %Top 3%Win ProbOdds
1
Over Yonder silk

Comes back from BM68 Saturday company after finishing fifth at Morphettville, beaten just under three lengths behind Delightful Shecky despite jumping awkwardly, racing keenly and being interfered with near the home turn. He had been third in the same grade two runs back at big odds, beaten just over half a length, so the recent form is solid. The trip remains the small query, but the easier company and 3lbs claim give him a strong winning case.

1st Pick
1

Over Yonder

Jockey: Caitlyn Munro

Trainer: Brendon Davis

J: Caitlyn Munro

T: Brendon Davis

138---39%13/8

Analysis

Comes back from BM68 Saturday company after finishing fifth at Morphettville, beaten just under three lengths behind Delightful Shecky despite jumping awkwardly, racing keenly and being interfered with near the home turn. He had been third in the same grade two runs back at big odds, beaten just over half a length, so the recent form is solid. The trip remains the small query, but the easier company and 3lbs claim give him a strong winning case.

10
Strawberry Swing silk

Won strongly in a BM54 at this track last start, beating Sethnique by four and a half lengths on soft ground after overcoming an awkward beginning and putting the race away. Her previous BM64 run was poor, but she had excuses after being tightened and held up near the 1f. This is a rise to BM60, yet her track-and-distance record and wet-track form give her a strong platform to go close again.

2nd Pick
10

Strawberry Swing

Jockey: Stacey Metcalfe

Trainer: Jackie Stoetzer

J: Stacey Metcalfe

T: Jackie Stoetzer

124---19%9/2

Analysis

Won strongly in a BM54 at this track last start, beating Sethnique by four and a half lengths on soft ground after overcoming an awkward beginning and putting the race away. Her previous BM64 run was poor, but she had excuses after being tightened and held up near the 1f. This is a rise to BM60, yet her track-and-distance record and wet-track form give her a strong platform to go close again.

4
Chesteray silk

Had no clear excuse when second last in a BM64 at this track last start, beaten eight and a half lengths after tracking the speed and failing to pick up. His previous run was a narrow BM54 win at this venue over 5f, when he finished strongly to beat Champagne Effort, and he has won twice at the distance. The last run has to be forgiven, but his wet-track record and winning rider returning keep him a genuine chance.

3rd Pick
4

Chesteray

Jockey: Murray Henderson

Trainer: Shylie Williams

J: Murray Henderson

T: Shylie Williams

119---4%25/1

Analysis

Had no clear excuse when second last in a BM64 at this track last start, beaten eight and a half lengths after tracking the speed and failing to pick up. His previous run was a narrow BM54 win at this venue over 5f, when he finished strongly to beat Champagne Effort, and he has won twice at the distance. The last run has to be forgiven, but his wet-track record and winning rider returning keep him a genuine chance.

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Show Wager

Betting on a horse to finish in the first three spots, which pays out the same whether they win or run second or third.

Bolt

A sudden veering to the inside or outside rail, often caused by the horse spooking or shying from something.

Paddock

The area where horses gather before the race to be saddled and paraded for the public.