AU - Warrnambool - Race 4

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

9.9f

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 10

24.5K

VIEW

Verdict

ADIRA RIVER (10) was outclassed after setting far too strong of a tempo last start in a much deeper race at Flemington, folding up badly in the run home. Can easily wipe that effort and go on the dominant maiden win three back as well as the placing in BM66 company. Provided she's come through that well she'll be very hard to beat. EPOCH (2) is racing in great form, notching up his second win in three starts last time at Donald when leading throughout. He sets up perfectly from the low gate. UP AND UNDER (6) can mix his form a bit but is capable enough on his day and turns around quickly here up in trip which should suit. DARWINIAN (3) is lightly raced off a maiden win at Casterton and could go on with it while STAR OF ROSSA (5) is back in grade and can improve.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
10	Most recently didn't do much in the run home, ran second last of 15 at Flemington 3yo Hcp on July 4 over 1/16m, on a slow track, 22 len behind Brillantezza carrying 119lbs at $61. Before that held ground to the line 3rd of 10 at Cranbourne Bm66 on June 21 over 1 ¼m, slow going 3.5 len behind Rainsun with 117lbs at $8. Much easier here and rates highly on best. 1st Pick 10 Adira River Jockey: Declan Bates Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Declan Bates T: Ciaron Maher	127	-	-	-	23%
Analysis Most recently didn't do much in the run home, ran second last of 15 at Flemington 3yo Hcp on July 4 over 1/16m, on a slow track, 22 len behind Brillantezza carrying 119lbs at $61. Before that held ground to the line 3rd of 10 at Cranbourne Bm66 on June 21 over 1 ¼m, slow going 3.5 len behind Rainsun with 117lbs at $8. Much easier here and rates highly on best.
2	Racing well recently. Returns from a 33-day let-up. Last start won by 1.0 len at Donald Bm56 June 20 over 1m in the wet defeating Call Me Rhonda carrying 134lbs at $7. The start before that 4th of 13 at Werribee Bm56 on May 30 over 1m, slow going 4.5 len behind Miss Niagara with 134lbs at $2.90. Will take catching again. 2nd Pick 2 Epoch Jockey: Dean Yendall Trainer: Matthew Williams J: Dean Yendall T: Matthew Williams	126	-	-	-	42%
Analysis Racing well recently. Returns from a 33-day let-up. Last start won by 1.0 len at Donald Bm56 June 20 over 1m in the wet defeating Call Me Rhonda carrying 134lbs at $7. The start before that 4th of 13 at Werribee Bm56 on May 30 over 1m, slow going 4.5 len behind Miss Niagara with 134lbs at $2.90. Will take catching again.
6	Most recently 4th of 9 at Cranbourne Bm62 on July 16 over 1m, in the wet, 2.75 len behind Tight Grip carrying 129lbs at $11. The start before that 10th of 12 at Pakenham Synthetic Bm62 on June 15 over 1m, 16 len behind Quite The Lass with 130lbs at $5. Can improve again. Finds a nice race this time and is likely to feature. 3rd Pick 6 Up And Under Jockey: Logan Mcneil Trainer: David Noonan J: Logan Mcneil T: David Noonan	121	-	-	-	10%
Analysis Most recently 4th of 9 at Cranbourne Bm62 on July 16 over 1m, in the wet, 2.75 len behind Tight Grip carrying 129lbs at $11. The start before that 10th of 12 at Pakenham Synthetic Bm62 on June 15 over 1m, 16 len behind Quite The Lass with 130lbs at $5. Can improve again. Finds a nice race this time and is likely to feature.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Maiden Race

A race exclusively for horses who have not previously won.

Synthetic Surface

A racing surface comprised of silica sand and fibers, such as recycled carpet or spandex. The mixture is then sealed with wax.

Sloppy

A wet racetrack condition, typically with a firm base and water settling on top.