AU - Wangaratta - Race 8

Thoroughbred

16 Runners

6.5f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

15.5K

VIEW

Verdict

EXPRESS GUARD (8) brings the best combination of recent effort and upside after a sound fourth at Kyneton, where he beat Rose Of Shalaa home and was only beaten three and a half lengths. The wide barrier is the obvious complication, but the solid association for 4lbs claimer Stephanie Hateley keeps him firmly on top. VADERLEE (6) was plain first-up in BM62 grade at Cranbourne, yet this BM56 looks a more suitable assignment and his 6 ½f record is good enough to rebound sharply. ROSE OF SHALAA (13) disappointed as a well-backed runner at Kyneton, so the response is the issue, but she has won at stronger level and gets a softer draw to help her cause. RAVEN'S SILVER (7) is the proven Wangaratta runner, with two wins and two placings from six starts at this track, and his heavy-track second two back at Warrnambool says he's on track.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
8	Made a sound return when fourth at Kyneton, beaten three and a half lengths by Brutal World, and that same line has him ahead of Rose Of Shalaa from a recent clash. The wide draw is the query, but Stephanie Hateley has won twice on him from three rides and the 4lbs claim is a useful assist. Peak figures see him hard to hold out. 1st Pick 8 Express Guard Jockey: Stephanie Hateley Trainer: Brad Cunningham J: Stephanie Hateley T: Brad Cunningham	106	-	-	-	8%	12/1
Analysis Made a sound return when fourth at Kyneton, beaten three and a half lengths by Brutal World, and that same line has him ahead of Rose Of Shalaa from a recent clash. The wide draw is the query, but Stephanie Hateley has won twice on him from three rides and the 4lbs claim is a useful assist. Peak figures see him hard to hold out.
6	Comes back from BM62 company after finishing sixth at Cranbourne, where he was close enough on the turn but did not quicken behind Aradeo. He was only beaten three and a half lengths in the same grade at Stawell prior, and his 6 ½f record includes a win and a placing. Strong chance if he sharpens up second-up. 2nd Pick 6 Vaderlee Jockey: Teo Nugent Trainer: Simon Zahra J: Teo Nugent T: Simon Zahra	129	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Comes back from BM62 company after finishing sixth at Cranbourne, where he was close enough on the turn but did not quicken behind Aradeo. He was only beaten three and a half lengths in the same grade at Stawell prior, and his 6 ½f record includes a win and a placing. Strong chance if he sharpens up second-up.
13	Was disappointing as a well-supported runner at Kyneton last start, finishing ninth behind Brutal World and behind Express Guard after giving away a big start. Her Ballarat Synthetic fourth in FM BM62 grade two back was steadier, despite beginning slowly. Drawn well and looks a key hope. 3rd Pick 13 Rose Of Shalaa Jockey: Damien Thornton Trainer: Reece Goodwin J: Damien Thornton T: Reece Goodwin	85	-	-	-	11%	17/2
Analysis Was disappointing as a well-supported runner at Kyneton last start, finishing ninth behind Brutal World and behind Express Guard after giving away a big start. Her Ballarat Synthetic fourth in FM BM62 grade two back was steadier, despite beginning slowly. Drawn well and looks a key hope.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Scratch

A horse is a scratch when injury or other necessity causes it to be withdrawn from the race.

Pari-Mutuel

A pool style wagering system, where all money input through betting is divided among those with winning tickets (save for various deductions by the track operators).

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.