AU - Swan Hill at Murtoa - Race 8

Thoroughbred

20 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 8

14.2K

VIEW

Verdict

BAKERSBEND (5) has a moderate winning strike-rate but performed well when returning from a break last time at Mildura, finishing third and only 1.4 lengths from the winner at the end of 6f when he made late ground. Has his share of ability. Hard to beat in this suitable race. BANCOORA (3) was thereabouts last time out when second at Mt Gambier over 6f, beaten a long neck. Top chance. MISS ELLANEOUS (10) was well below her best last time but her prior form was strong. Has been freshened with 57 days and can bounce back sharply here. Low gate helps. POWERING AWAY (4) hasn't been seen for a few weeks since the nice maiden win and while up in grade here, he's missed a place just once from 6 starts and looks progressive. COSMIC CHARGER (9) finished sixth at the second run back from a break in a 7f contest at Wangaratta last time out. Suitably placed so can turn things around.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Last start 10th of 12 in a Bm62 at Bendigo on July 30 over 7f, on a slow track, 10 len behind Puglia carrying 134lbs at $9. The race before that came from midfield and won by 1.0 len at Mildura on July 18 over 7f defeating Pacific Jewel carrying 137lbs at $4.60. Can bounce back. 1st Pick 1 Sacred Fort Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Taige Weir J: Non Runner T: Taige Weir	138	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Last start 10th of 12 in a Bm62 at Bendigo on July 30 over 7f, on a slow track, 10 len behind Puglia carrying 134lbs at $9. The race before that came from midfield and won by 1.0 len at Mildura on July 18 over 7f defeating Pacific Jewel carrying 137lbs at $4.60. Can bounce back.
5	Second-up. First-up after nine months 3rd of 9 in a Bm56 at Mildura on August 8 over 6f, 1.4 len behind Orthie's Boys with 134lbs at $5.50. Previously second-up won by 1.3 len at this track on September 28 over 6f defeating Ponte Arcobaleno with 131lbs at $1.80. Fitter and worth following up. 2nd Pick 5 Bakersbend Jockey: Brad Rawiller Trainer: Brent Stanley J: Brad Rawiller T: Brent Stanley	85	-	-	-	4%	26/1
Analysis Second-up. First-up after nine months 3rd of 9 in a Bm56 at Mildura on August 8 over 6f, 1.4 len behind Orthie's Boys with 134lbs at $5.50. Previously second-up won by 1.3 len at this track on September 28 over 6f defeating Ponte Arcobaleno with 131lbs at $1.80. Fitter and worth following up.
3	At the latest run 2nd of 11 in a Bm62 at Mt Gambier on August 7 over 6f, on rain affected going, long-neck behind Naralinga with 129lbs at $15. Before that got back early 5th of 9 in a Cg&E Bm56 at Geelong on July 31 over 6f, on a slow track, 6 len behind Immortal Triumph with 137lbs at $11. Further improvement expected. 3rd Pick 3 Bancoora Jockey: Campbell Rawiller Trainer: Paul Preusker J: Campbell Rawiller T: Paul Preusker	153	-	-	-	10%	10/1
Analysis At the latest run 2nd of 11 in a Bm62 at Mt Gambier on August 7 over 6f, on rain affected going, long-neck behind Naralinga with 129lbs at $15. Before that got back early 5th of 9 in a Cg&E Bm56 at Geelong on July 31 over 6f, on a slow track, 6 len behind Immortal Triumph with 137lbs at $11. Further improvement expected.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Allowance Race

A race with non-claiming conditions set by the racing secretary. They are meant to be a step down from stakes racing.