AU - Swan Hill at Murtoa - Race 3

Thoroughbred

20 Runners

Maiden

Turf

HEAVY 8

14.2K

VIEW

Verdict

WHIMSY SMILE (14) is close to breaking through after two consecutive placings, the latest coming when second over 6f at Seymour after being prominent from the outset. Won't find this as tough so he is all set to build on that latest effort. SIBUN (8) is another who has been knocking on the door with back-to-back consecutive placings, the latest coming when second over 6f at Ballarat Synthetic. Has good early speed and will enjoy a drop in class. BOLD JESTER (1) is a three-start maiden who missed the placings first up but has since consolidated with two straight placings, the latest over 6f at Mildura. Big chance again. SHUJINKO (7) finished fifth at his last appearance over 5 ½f at Warrnambool on July 23. Looks to be in the right race to figure in the finish.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
14	Third-up today. First-up 3rd of 7 in a 2yo Mdn-Sw at Seymour on July 19 over 6f, on a wet track, 3 len behind Dustee with 128lbs at $5.50. Second-up crossed from a wide gate to settle just off the pace but gave ground when 2nd of 14 in a Mdn-Sw at Seymour on August 7 over 6f, slow going 1.3 len behind Misty Whisper carrying 126lbs at $7.50. Fitter now and making headway. Will be hard to beat. 1st Pick 14 Whimsy Smile Jockey: Harry Coffey Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: Harry Coffey T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	158	-	-	-	50%
Analysis Third-up today. First-up 3rd of 7 in a 2yo Mdn-Sw at Seymour on July 19 over 6f, on a wet track, 3 len behind Dustee with 128lbs at $5.50. Second-up crossed from a wide gate to settle just off the pace but gave ground when 2nd of 14 in a Mdn-Sw at Seymour on August 7 over 6f, slow going 1.3 len behind Misty Whisper carrying 126lbs at $7.50. Fitter now and making headway. Will be hard to beat.
8	Most recently came from midfield, 2nd of 10 in a Mdn-Sw at Ballarat Synthetic on August 6 over 6f, 3.5 len behind Saludar carrying 131lbs at $9. The race before that came from midfield, 2nd of 7 in a 3yo Mdn-Sw at Mildura on July 17 over 7f, on a slow track, 0.8 len behind Mike's Hope carrying 128lbs at $5.50. Should be nice and fit fourth up and can get the win here. 2nd Pick 8 Sibun Jockey: Alana Kelly Trainer: Mitchell Freedman J: Alana Kelly T: Mitchell Freedman	167	-	-	-	25%
Analysis Most recently came from midfield, 2nd of 10 in a Mdn-Sw at Ballarat Synthetic on August 6 over 6f, 3.5 len behind Saludar carrying 131lbs at $9. The race before that came from midfield, 2nd of 7 in a 3yo Mdn-Sw at Mildura on July 17 over 7f, on a slow track, 0.8 len behind Mike's Hope carrying 128lbs at $5.50. Should be nice and fit fourth up and can get the win here.
1	Racing well recently. Returns from a 34-day let-up. Most recently 2nd of 7 in a 3yo Mdn-Sw at Mildura on July 18 over 6f, long-neck behind Blackjack carrying 128lbs at $2.40. Before that sat on the pace when 3rd of 9 in a Mdn-Sw at Wangaratta on July 6 over 6 ½f, on a wet track, 1.5 len behind Jasmina with 131lbs at $1.85. Big chance to break through. 3rd Pick 1 Bold Jester Jockey: Brad Rawiller Trainer: Patrick Payne J: Brad Rawiller T: Patrick Payne	172	-	-	-	36%
Analysis Racing well recently. Returns from a 34-day let-up. Most recently 2nd of 7 in a 3yo Mdn-Sw at Mildura on July 18 over 6f, long-neck behind Blackjack carrying 128lbs at $2.40. Before that sat on the pace when 3rd of 9 in a Mdn-Sw at Wangaratta on July 6 over 6 ½f, on a wet track, 1.5 len behind Jasmina with 131lbs at $1.85. Big chance to break through.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Show Wager

Betting on a horse to finish in the first three spots, which pays out the same whether they win or run second or third.