AU - Pakenham - Race 5

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

28.2K

VIEW

Verdict

Tricky race with a lot of these evenly matched. Leaning to BLAKMAX (1) who is going well and finds a suitable race. He's run third in his past couple of outings in BM66 company, coming back to a BM62 now. He is back to 7f which is a little niggle but he's got the speed to settle in the first pair and take running down. SHIDAN (6) presents third up having been okay in two runs back. He'll be fitter again and draws to sit closer now. JET JITSU (2) doesn't win many but was better second up at Warrnambool and could get into the minor money. RUSSIAN RONI (4) is coming off an easy picnic win. This is harder but not by a huge margin.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	At the latest run 3rd in a small field at Cranbourne Bm66 on March 13 over 1m, 1.5 len behind Overactive carrying 134lbs at $10. The start before that held ground to the line 3rd of 9 at Cranbourne Bm66 on February 27 over 1m, 0.7 len behind Curse It with 134lbs at $41. Racing well and this looks very winnable. 1st Pick 1 Blakmax Jockey: Jackson Radley Trainer: Shawn Mathrick J: Jackson Radley T: Shawn Mathrick	171	-	-	-	39%
Analysis At the latest run 3rd in a small field at Cranbourne Bm66 on March 13 over 1m, 1.5 len behind Overactive carrying 134lbs at $10. The start before that held ground to the line 3rd of 9 at Cranbourne Bm66 on February 27 over 1m, 0.7 len behind Curse It with 134lbs at $41. Racing well and this looks very winnable.
6	Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. Resuming 6th of 9 at this track Bm62 on February 19 over 6f, 4 len behind Kokako carrying 125lbs at $31. Last start 4th of 8 at Sale Bm62 on March 1 over 7f, slow going 4.5 len behind Diamond Gust with 123lbs at $4.80. Should be ready to peak third up and has claims. 2nd Pick 6 Shidan Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse Trainer: Adele Garraway J: Daniel Stackhouse T: Adele Garraway	131	-	-	-	46%
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. Resuming 6th of 9 at this track Bm62 on February 19 over 6f, 4 len behind Kokako carrying 125lbs at $31. Last start 4th of 8 at Sale Bm62 on March 1 over 7f, slow going 4.5 len behind Diamond Gust with 123lbs at $4.80. Should be ready to peak third up and has claims.
3	Second run back. First-up after nine months settled back and ran on when 7th of 11 at Ballarat Bm62 on February 22 over 7f, 7 len behind Roulette King carrying 130lbs at $5.50. Previously second-up 4th of 8 at Moonee Valley 3yo Mdn-Sw on November 29 2024 over 6f, 5 len behind Pacific Luck carrying 128lbs at $41. Fitter and can improve quickly. 3rd Pick 3 Treasureflight Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Matt Cumani J: Non Runner T: Matt Cumani	74	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Second run back. First-up after nine months settled back and ran on when 7th of 11 at Ballarat Bm62 on February 22 over 7f, 7 len behind Roulette King carrying 130lbs at $5.50. Previously second-up 4th of 8 at Moonee Valley 3yo Mdn-Sw on November 29 2024 over 6f, 5 len behind Pacific Luck carrying 128lbs at $41. Fitter and can improve quickly.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Exercise Rider

A rider built much like a jockey but is employed for exercising and working out horses in the morning.

Handicap

A race where a handicapper has assigned weights to be carried by all runners on the basis of their past racing efforts.

Apprentice

A new jockey who has not ridden a certain number of winners in a specified time period.