AU - Pakenham - Race 2

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

Maiden

Turf

GOOD 4

30.9K

VIEW

Verdict

MONGOLIAN HERO (8) is the one to beat after two solid fourths to start the campaign, the latest at this track when beaten a length after being held up from the 1 ½f. He is third-up, rates strongly on recent form and gets the chance to turn those close efforts into a maiden win with Jamie Melham taking the ride. GALIVAD (4) resumes after eight months and brings a tidy debut fourth at Ballarat, where he tracked the speed and was beaten just under three lengths. Should be fit enough and will give a sight. CAPITAL AFFAIR (12) made sharp improvement when third at this venue on soft ground, beaten just over a length and with luck from the gate she'll run well. DEXTROSE (11) has the widest draw to overcome, but she was held up near the 1 ½f and still finished fourth at Wangaratta with upside to come.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
8	Has the right profile third-up after finishing fourth at this track in a Mdn over 6f, beaten a length after being held up from the 1 ½f. He was also fourth at Moe as favourite, where he had bumps and traffic before making ground without threatening. The rise to 7f is a query after one unplaced try around the trip, but his recent form and race fitness make him the horse to beat. 1st Pick 8 Mongolian Hero Jockey: Jamie Melham Trainer: Peter Gelagotis J: Jamie Melham T: Peter Gelagotis	198	-	-	-	45%	5/4
Analysis Has the right profile third-up after finishing fourth at this track in a Mdn over 6f, beaten a length after being held up from the 1 ½f. He was also fourth at Moe as favourite, where he had bumps and traffic before making ground without threatening. The rise to 7f is a query after one unplaced try around the trip, but his recent form and race fitness make him the horse to beat.
4	Returns from a lengthy spell after one debut run at Ballarat, where he tracked the speed and worked home evenly for fourth, beaten just under three lengths as an outside chance in betting. He has had two trials since last raced and is rated well at this distance. Barrier 4 helps him resume in a suitable position, and his lightly-raced profile gives him strong upside in this Mdn. 2nd Pick 4 Galivad Jockey: Jett Stanley Trainer: Gavin Bedggood J: Jett Stanley T: Gavin Bedggood	95	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Returns from a lengthy spell after one debut run at Ballarat, where he tracked the speed and worked home evenly for fourth, beaten just under three lengths as an outside chance in betting. He has had two trials since last raced and is rated well at this distance. Barrier 4 helps him resume in a suitable position, and his lightly-raced profile gives him strong upside in this Mdn.
12	Comes off a much better third at this track on soft ground, beaten just over a length after leading to the turn despite being unwanted in the market. The run prior at Cranbourne was plain over 5f after she jumped awkwardly and was steadied early, but she looks to have found her rhythm now. Proven around this distance and race-fit fourth-up, she is a strong winning chance. 3rd Pick 12 Capital Affair Jockey: Luke Nolen Trainer: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman J: Luke Nolen T: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman	97	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis Comes off a much better third at this track on soft ground, beaten just over a length after leading to the turn despite being unwanted in the market. The run prior at Cranbourne was plain over 5f after she jumped awkwardly and was steadied early, but she looks to have found her rhythm now. Proven around this distance and race-fit fourth-up, she is a strong winning chance.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

Dead Heat

Two or more horses finishing so close at the wire, that they were unable to be separated on a photo finish and deemed to have tied.

Also Eligible

A horse that is entered but does not draw into the body of the field due to too many entries, and thus is not permitted to start unless there are enough scratches to shrink the field size.