AU - Pakenham - Race 1

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 7

32.4K

VIEW

Verdict

Interesting race to kick things off with a couple who have been beaten at short quotes this prep likely to again be prominent in betting. GEESEVEN (1) looked to have every chance first-up when $1.65, but missed narrowly. Will have taken good fitness benefit from that and the slight rise in trip is no disadvantage. LET LILY LOOSE (6) went under at $1.50 first-up and again attracted good support last time when she finished midfield. That was in town, though, and only beaten 1.3/4 lengths so it looks the type of form that can measure up here. ARADEO (3) is yet to miss a place in three starts and while well held last time, was a few weeks between runs so will probably take good fitness benefit from that. Aradeo's stablemate THE ALPINA PENGUIN (8) looks the pick of the two first-starters, having not been fully extended in any of her jumpouts, so the market could be the best guide. VESPERS (9) has been beaten similar margins in all three starts but could improve with blinkers on.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Third race start. Promising on debut 2nd in a small field at this track 3yo Mdn-Sw on November 7 over 7f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Jenni Gone Bonkers with 128lbs at $6. Went for a break before returning held ground to the line 2nd of 8 at Geelong Mdn-Sw on April 22 over 6f, head behind Strangethingdesire with 130lbs at $1.65. Just missed last time and big chance to go one better. 1st Pick 1 Geeseven Jockey: Billy Egan Trainer: Grahame Begg J: Billy Egan T: Grahame Begg	160	-	-	-	53%	10/11
Analysis Third race start. Promising on debut 2nd in a small field at this track 3yo Mdn-Sw on November 7 over 7f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Jenni Gone Bonkers with 128lbs at $6. Went for a break before returning held ground to the line 2nd of 8 at Geelong Mdn-Sw on April 22 over 6f, head behind Strangethingdesire with 130lbs at $1.65. Just missed last time and big chance to go one better.
6	Third-up today. Resuming 3rd of 14 at Bendigo Mdn-Sw on March 27 over 6 ½f, 1.2 len behind Power And The Beat with 126lbs at $1.50. Second-up 4th of 8 at Sandown-Lakeside Mdn-Sw on April 15 over 7f, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Bonus Season with 127lbs at $2.60. Rates highly. Should be ready to peak now 2nd Pick 6 Let Lily Loose Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr J: Non Runner T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr	184	-	-	-	1%	1000/1
Analysis Third-up today. Resuming 3rd of 14 at Bendigo Mdn-Sw on March 27 over 6 ½f, 1.2 len behind Power And The Beat with 126lbs at $1.50. Second-up 4th of 8 at Sandown-Lakeside Mdn-Sw on April 15 over 7f, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Bonus Season with 127lbs at $2.60. Rates highly. Should be ready to peak now
3	Form hard to fault. Last start raced on speed throughout when 3rd of 7 at Kyneton 3yo F Mdn-Sw on April 23 over 6f, 4.5 len behind Chasing Rainbows with 126lbs at $8. The start before that 2nd of 9 at Ararat 3yo Mdn-Sw on March 3 over 6f, on a slow track, 0.5 len behind Corro with 123lbs at $2.90. Form sound and gets chance to break through. 3rd Pick 3 Aradeo Jockey: Zac Spain Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: Zac Spain T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	117	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Form hard to fault. Last start raced on speed throughout when 3rd of 7 at Kyneton 3yo F Mdn-Sw on April 23 over 6f, 4.5 len behind Chasing Rainbows with 126lbs at $8. The start before that 2nd of 9 at Ararat 3yo Mdn-Sw on March 3 over 6f, on a slow track, 0.5 len behind Corro with 123lbs at $2.90. Form sound and gets chance to break through.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

Allowance Race

A race with non-claiming conditions set by the racing secretary. They are meant to be a step down from stakes racing.

Breeder

The owner of a horse’s dam – or mother - at the time a horse is foaled.