AU - Moe - Race 4

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

10.3f

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 9

15.8K

VIEW

Verdict

Wide open. LADY ELSA (4) is fitter for three runs back and put the writing on the wall last time when a close-up fourth in a richer maiden last time at Pakenham on the synthetic. Extra trip looks a plus and should be at top. Go close on recent ratings. SIR ROCKFORD (1) is mixing form and was beaten a fair way on the very heavy at Warrnambool last time. Went close in a far richer race two back. Has placed 2/3 here and aided by the claim. Gets chance to atone. MIDNIGHT GLOW (2) is fitter for three runs in and looks ready to fire over the extra ground. CHATEAU DANCER (8) scored a big maiden win last time at Bairnsdale and help fresh since. Can go on with it. PROVEN RECORD (13) is ready to win and is among the main chances. Hopes don't end there.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
4	Comes off a 29 day let-up. Last start 4th of 11 in a Bm56 at Pakenham Synthetic on August 10 over 1m, 1.2 len behind Bogues carrying 132lbs at $6. The start before that eased back early on 6th of 11 in a Bm62 at Pakenham Synthetic on July 20 over 1m, 2.75 len behind Bronte Beach carrying 127lbs at $15. Good job last start and looks suited by the extra ground. 1st Pick 4 Lady Elsa Jockey: Beau Mertens Trainer: Charlotte Littlefield J: Beau Mertens T: Charlotte Littlefield	78	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Comes off a 29 day let-up. Last start 4th of 11 in a Bm56 at Pakenham Synthetic on August 10 over 1m, 1.2 len behind Bogues carrying 132lbs at $6. The start before that eased back early on 6th of 11 in a Bm62 at Pakenham Synthetic on July 20 over 1m, 2.75 len behind Bronte Beach carrying 127lbs at $15. Good job last start and looks suited by the extra ground.
1	At the latest run ran second last of 9 in a Bm62 at Warrnambool on August 20 over 1 ¼m, on a wet track, 18 len behind Shamex carrying 132lbs at $7.50. Before that came home strongly from last on the turn, 3rd of 10 in a Bm70 at Sandown-Lakeside on August 2 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 0.9 len behind Sunsets with 123lbs at $26. Placed 2/3 here and expected to go close. 2nd Pick 1 Sir Rockford Jockey: Ruby Lamont Trainer: Aaron Laing J: Ruby Lamont T: Aaron Laing	118	-	-	-	11%	17/2
Analysis At the latest run ran second last of 9 in a Bm62 at Warrnambool on August 20 over 1 ¼m, on a wet track, 18 len behind Shamex carrying 132lbs at $7.50. Before that came home strongly from last on the turn, 3rd of 10 in a Bm70 at Sandown-Lakeside on August 2 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 0.9 len behind Sunsets with 123lbs at $26. Placed 2/3 here and expected to go close.
2	Most recently eased back early on 5th of 8 in a Bm56 at Echuca on August 30 over 1m, slow going 3.5 len behind The Quiet Immortal carrying 138lbs at $4. The race before that got back early 5th of 8 in a Bm74 at Sandown-Hillside on July 29 over 1m, on rain affected going, 4 len behind Ninyo with 120lbs at $17. Ready to fire and gets chance. 3rd Pick 2 Midnight Glow Jockey: Craig Newitt Trainer: John Salanitri J: Craig Newitt T: John Salanitri	135	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Most recently eased back early on 5th of 8 in a Bm56 at Echuca on August 30 over 1m, slow going 3.5 len behind The Quiet Immortal carrying 138lbs at $4. The race before that got back early 5th of 8 in a Bm74 at Sandown-Hillside on July 29 over 1m, on rain affected going, 4 len behind Ninyo with 120lbs at $17. Ready to fire and gets chance.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Silks

The colorful jacket and cap worn by a jockey which features the design of the owner.

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

Sloppy

A wet racetrack condition, typically with a firm base and water settling on top.