AU - Geelong - Race 8

Thoroughbred

20 Runners

8.6f

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 9

24.8K

VIEW

Verdict

Open one to finish. COVERT THINKING (4) put in a much better run last start stepping up to 1 ³/16m at Canterbury, running on well in a BM72 to grab second. She's a consistent sort of mare who looks well placed this level. Stablemate OMNIC (3) will be one of the hardest to beat. He won two on the bounce then just found one better here last time in a similar race. He'll be up on speed and hard to run down. HOTEI SENSHI (10) is lightly raced, up in trip off an even showing in good company at Caulfield last time. This suits and the trip should too. DENY ENTRY (8) is another lightly raced type who stuck on well behind an all the way winner with strong 3yo form at Sandown lakeside. Fitter again and has strong claims. QUEENSBURY (7) is consistent and in the mix again.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
4	At the latest run 2nd of 7 at Canterbury on July 22 over 1 ³/16m, slow going 0.6 len behind Velaris with 120lbs at $5. Before that got back early 7th of 9 at Canterbury on July 8 over 7 ¾f, on a wet track, 7 len behind Let's Fly with 129lbs at $12. Brings solid form down and can win this. 1st Pick 4 Covert Thinking Jockey: Zac Moore Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Zac Moore T: Ciaron Maher	191	-	-	-	12%	15/2
Analysis At the latest run 2nd of 7 at Canterbury on July 22 over 1 ³/16m, slow going 0.6 len behind Velaris with 120lbs at $5. Before that got back early 7th of 9 at Canterbury on July 8 over 7 ¾f, on a wet track, 7 len behind Let's Fly with 129lbs at $12. Brings solid form down and can win this.
3	Recent form sound. At the latest run made ground from midfield, 2nd of 13 at this track on July 31 over 1 ¹/16m, on a slow track, 0.5 len behind Charming Deel with 131lbs at $3.70. The race before that raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by a head at Bendigo on July 5 over 7 ½f on a heavy track defeating Ataegina carrying 121lbs at $2.50. Racing well and will be hard to catch. 2nd Pick 3 Omnic Jockey: Jabez Johnstone Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Jabez Johnstone T: Ciaron Maher	211	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Recent form sound. At the latest run made ground from midfield, 2nd of 13 at this track on July 31 over 1 ¹/16m, on a slow track, 0.5 len behind Charming Deel with 131lbs at $3.70. The race before that raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by a head at Bendigo on July 5 over 7 ½f on a heavy track defeating Ataegina carrying 121lbs at $2.50. Racing well and will be hard to catch.
10	Third-up today. Resuming sat on speed throughout when 2nd of 12 at Bendigo on July 5 over 6 ½f, on rain affected going, nose behind Magnetic Chess carrying 133lbs at $5. Last start 7th of 11 at Caulfield on July 25 over 7f, on a slow track, 4 len behind Lauberhorn carrying 114lbs at $16. Can improve. Expect he can make amends. 3rd Pick 10 Hotei Senshi Jockey: Billy Egan Trainer: Luke Oliver J: Billy Egan T: Luke Oliver	102	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Third-up today. Resuming sat on speed throughout when 2nd of 12 at Bendigo on July 5 over 6 ½f, on rain affected going, nose behind Magnetic Chess carrying 133lbs at $5. Last start 7th of 11 at Caulfield on July 25 over 7f, on a slow track, 4 len behind Lauberhorn carrying 114lbs at $16. Can improve. Expect he can make amends.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

Main Track Only

A horse entered for main track only (MTO) is one hoping the weather forecast or track conditions will move the race off the turf course and onto the main track. They are scratched the morning of the race if the conditions stay dry.