AU - Geelong - Race 7

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

5.5f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

86.7K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

SWEETHEARTED (10) closed off strongly last start to get up for third, beaten a long neck, over 5f at Pakenham. Tumbles in weight and the extra metres suit. Will drift back but wind up late. Leading contender. BIG SWINGER (1) was well in the market when finding a place at Stakes level and then ran his best number, beaten 1.3L over 6f at Pakenham this grade. He will also present cherry-ripe and will be tough to beat. NAVAL ACADEMY (4) will lead or stalk and reckon his chances on his neck defeat at Cranbourne two-back. Has a handy gate and 4lbs claim and can make the finish. MOBY DICK (6) resumes for a top metro barn with the in-form Brown a key jockey engagement. He's won 2/3 fresh and has been fitted with three jumpouts. Tipping we'll see more from him this preparation. CARBONADOS (2) is third up and has been switched back from Sydney by the Hayes stable. Has a low barrier and 7lbs claim and keep onside.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
10	Most recently 3rd of 12 at Pakenham Bm74 on December 13 over 5f, long-neck behind Manolo Bling with 130lbs at $7. Before that 5th of 12 at Flemington Bm80 Grand Hcp on November 8 over 5 ½f, on rain affected going, 2.75 len behind Grand Larceny with 129lbs at $6.50. A top chance. 1st Pick 10 Sweethearted Jockey: Harry Coffey Trainer: Phillip Stokes J: Harry Coffey T: Phillip Stokes	173	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Most recently 3rd of 12 at Pakenham Bm74 on December 13 over 5f, long-neck behind Manolo Bling with 130lbs at $7. Before that 5th of 12 at Flemington Bm80 Grand Hcp on November 8 over 5 ½f, on rain affected going, 2.75 len behind Grand Larceny with 129lbs at $6.50. A top chance.
1	Dual acceptor. Form hard to fault. Last start made ground from midfield, 2nd of 16 at Pakenham Bm84 on December 13 over 6f, 1.3 len behind Recon with 138lbs at $5.50. The run before that 3rd of 11 at Caulfield in the LR Testa Rossa on November 29 over 7f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Here To Shock with 126lbs at $4.40. Making headway. Talented type who has strong claims. 2nd Pick 1 Big Swinger Jockey: Logan Bates Trainer: Charlotte Littlefield J: Logan Bates T: Charlotte Littlefield	120	-	-	-	35%	15/8
Analysis Dual acceptor. Form hard to fault. Last start made ground from midfield, 2nd of 16 at Pakenham Bm84 on December 13 over 6f, 1.3 len behind Recon with 138lbs at $5.50. The run before that 3rd of 11 at Caulfield in the LR Testa Rossa on November 29 over 7f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Here To Shock with 126lbs at $4.40. Making headway. Talented type who has strong claims.
4	Dual acceptor. Most recently 5th of 16 at Pakenham Bm84 on December 13 over 6f, 3.5 len behind Recon with 125lbs at $7.50. The start before that set the pace for much of the race 2nd of 9 at Cranbourne Bm80 on November 22 over 6f, neck behind Hearcomesthestar with 128lbs at $6.50. Great chance to atone. 3rd Pick 4 Naval Academy Jockey: Luke Cartwright Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Luke Cartwright T: Ciaron Maher	128	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Dual acceptor. Most recently 5th of 16 at Pakenham Bm84 on December 13 over 6f, 3.5 len behind Recon with 125lbs at $7.50. The start before that set the pace for much of the race 2nd of 9 at Cranbourne Bm80 on November 22 over 6f, neck behind Hearcomesthestar with 128lbs at $6.50. Great chance to atone.

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