AU - Geelong - Race 7

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

28.7K

VIEW

Verdict

FLOWERDALE (14) is racing well, scoring two back at Sale before finishing 1.75 lengths from the winner last time over 7f at Sandown. She's a progressive type from a strong stable who are most likely using this as a stepping stone to bigger and better things. ALERO (2) improved sharply on his fourth two starts back at Pakenham with success as favourite over 7f at Pakenham, getting home by 2.25 lengths. Will give himself every chance on-speed. QUISEEN (6) gave away a considerable start over 6f at Caulfield Heath last time before hitting the line well to finish fourth. Suited onto this bigger track. CRIPPS (7) has started this campaign with a flourish, winning both starts down in Tassie, and while this is a step up in grade he'll have taken great benefit from those runs and has a winning habit. ARCANDAM (5) also won his first two runs this prep and although beaten last start he was only 2.35 lengths off Verdoux, who won at Flemington last weekend.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
14	Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Resuming won by 0.8 len at Sale Bm62 February 11 over 6f defeating Bohemian Angel carrying 128lbs at $3.10. Second run from a spell 2nd of 9 at Sandown-Hillside F&M Bm74 on February 25 over 7f, slow going 1.75 len behind Terilee carrying 123lbs at $6. Well placed. Nice first-up win followed by a solid second to a horse who'd start a short-priced favourite here. 1st Pick 14 Flowerdale Jockey: Jackson Radley Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: Jackson Radley T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	138	-	-	-	39%	13/8
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Resuming won by 0.8 len at Sale Bm62 February 11 over 6f defeating Bohemian Angel carrying 128lbs at $3.10. Second run from a spell 2nd of 9 at Sandown-Hillside F&M Bm74 on February 25 over 7f, slow going 1.75 len behind Terilee carrying 123lbs at $6. Well placed. Nice first-up win followed by a solid second to a horse who'd start a short-priced favourite here.
2	Form hard to fault. Last start favourite, won by 2.25 len at Pakenham Bm62 March 5 over 7f defeating Lulu Darling carrying 132lbs at $2.60. Before that 4th of 8 at Pakenham Bm66 on February 12 over 6f, 1.5 len behind Southern Crescent with 134lbs at $2.15. Bounced back last start and will give himself every chance on speed once again. 2nd Pick 2 Alero Jockey: Unknown Jockey Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Unknown Jockey T: Ciaron Maher	125	-	-	-	14%	13/2
Analysis Form hard to fault. Last start favourite, won by 2.25 len at Pakenham Bm62 March 5 over 7f defeating Lulu Darling carrying 132lbs at $2.60. Before that 4th of 8 at Pakenham Bm66 on February 12 over 6f, 1.5 len behind Southern Crescent with 134lbs at $2.15. Bounced back last start and will give himself every chance on speed once again.
6	At the latest run got back early 4th of 8 at Caulfield Heath F&M Bm74 on February 18 over 6f, 1.75 len behind Xarpo carrying 131lbs at $6.50. The race before that 6th of 11 at Caulfield Bm70 on January 24 over 7f, 3 len behind Everain with 132lbs at $10. Can improve on the latest effort and gets her chance from the inside alley. 3rd Pick 6 Quiseen Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Archie Alexander J: Non Runner T: Archie Alexander	118	-	-	-	8%	13/1
Analysis At the latest run got back early 4th of 8 at Caulfield Heath F&M Bm74 on February 18 over 6f, 1.75 len behind Xarpo carrying 131lbs at $6.50. The race before that 6th of 11 at Caulfield Bm70 on January 24 over 7f, 3 len behind Everain with 132lbs at $10. Can improve on the latest effort and gets her chance from the inside alley.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Yielding

A rain-soaked turf condition often producing a slick or heavy course and slower finish times.

Exacta

A bet selecting the first and second horses in a race in the correct order. An exacta box refers to paying a little more to ensure they can finish in either order.