AU - Geelong - Race 7

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

7.2f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

19.4K

VIEW

Verdict

TIME BANDIT (7) finished eighth two runs back then improved last start but found a couple better over 7 ?f at this track, beaten 2.25 lengths at the first start for the new stable. That was in BM70 grade, though, so he will find this much more to his liking with blinkers on. IL CIELO (3) is a consistent type who comes here off a last-start fourth, beaten 1.75 lengths, over 7 ½f at this track. Ran top-three at his previous five starts and only needs to hold recent form to again be a force. TREBILCO (8) was a dominant maiden winner last start and while he will find things tougher here, he should have taken some fitness benefit from that given he was only third-up. DOCINTHE (5) was out of the money two runs back then again missed the frame last start when he was always well out of his ground over 6 ¾f at Donald, but will find this more to his liking and can improve. BAGANOV (4) wasn't disgraced behind a smart one last start, just needs luck from the sticky gate.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
7	Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up raced behind the speed prior to fading to run last of 8 at Flemington Mares Hcp on March 28 over 5 ½f, in the wet, 5 len behind Pop Award carrying 115lbs at $101. Last start 3rd of 7 at this track F&M Bm70 on April 22 over 7f, 2.25 len behind Eternal carrying 129lbs at $10. Capable of a better showing. Well placed to take this out. 1st Pick 7 Time Bandit Jockey: Jamie Mott Trainer: Josh Cartwright J: Jamie Mott T: Josh Cartwright	138	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up raced behind the speed prior to fading to run last of 8 at Flemington Mares Hcp on March 28 over 5 ½f, in the wet, 5 len behind Pop Award carrying 115lbs at $101. Last start 3rd of 7 at this track F&M Bm70 on April 22 over 7f, 2.25 len behind Eternal carrying 129lbs at $10. Capable of a better showing. Well placed to take this out.
3	Form hard to fault. Most recently 4th of 11 at this track Bm56 on April 10 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Short Reply with 133lbs at $6. The run before that 2nd of 8 at Ararat Bm56 on March 30 over 1m, 1.3 len behind The Daily Planet carrying 133lbs at $7.50. Great chance to atone. 2nd Pick 3 Il Cielo Jockey: Zac Moore Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Zac Moore T: Ciaron Maher	126	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Form hard to fault. Most recently 4th of 11 at this track Bm56 on April 10 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Short Reply with 133lbs at $6. The run before that 2nd of 8 at Ararat Bm56 on March 30 over 1m, 1.3 len behind The Daily Planet carrying 133lbs at $7.50. Great chance to atone.
8	Racing well recently. At the latest run favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 1.0 len at Kilmore Mdn-Sw April 18 over 7 ¼f defeating Ambitious Achiever carrying 131lbs at $1.60. Before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 9 at this track Mdn-Sw on April 1 over 7f, 0.7 len behind Fastobeast with 131lbs at $9. Broke maiden in style last start and can go on with it. 3rd Pick 8 Trebilco Jockey: Koby Jennings Trainer: M, W & J Hawkes J: Koby Jennings T: M, W & J Hawkes	127	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Racing well recently. At the latest run favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 1.0 len at Kilmore Mdn-Sw April 18 over 7 ¼f defeating Ambitious Achiever carrying 131lbs at $1.60. Before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 9 at this track Mdn-Sw on April 1 over 7f, 0.7 len behind Fastobeast with 131lbs at $9. Broke maiden in style last start and can go on with it.

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