AU - Geelong - Race 1

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

8.7f

Maiden

Turf

GOOD 4

22.9K

VIEW

Verdict

FENESTELLA (8) looked to have found the perfect race to break her duck first-up and while seemingly disappointing given she went under at $1.55, she was only beaten just over a length and raced like a horse who would appreciate more ground. She gets that here and in a weaker race with blinkers going on, so she's worth sticking with. BALLISTIC ROMEO (2) looks the only real danger. Although well beaten last start, she was beaten only 3/4 of a length the start prior in a stronger race than this at Pakenham. Back in trip here, but also back in class. Of the rest, AND I AM (1) might be next best with three runs under his belt and stepping up in trip. BRUTUS JUNIUS (3) was never a factor first-up, but will be better for that and can give a sight on-speed up in trip. YATCHAW (9) should be at peak fitness after three runs back from a spell.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
8	Second-up. First-up after nine months ran on from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Sale Mdn-Sw on April 19 over 7f, 1.1 len behind Kindamagic with 126lbs at $1.55. Previously second-up second last in a small field at Flemington 3yo Bm70 on August 2 over 7f, 2 len behind Crossbow with 125lbs at $31. Disappointed as a hot fav last start but blinkers on and better suited here. 1st Pick 8 Fenestella Jockey: Dylan Dunn Trainer: Shane Nichols & Hayden Black J: Dylan Dunn T: Shane Nichols & Hayden Black	117	-	-	-	43%	11/8
Analysis Second-up. First-up after nine months ran on from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Sale Mdn-Sw on April 19 over 7f, 1.1 len behind Kindamagic with 126lbs at $1.55. Previously second-up second last in a small field at Flemington 3yo Bm70 on August 2 over 7f, 2 len behind Crossbow with 125lbs at $31. Disappointed as a hot fav last start but blinkers on and better suited here.
2	Last start 5th of 12 at Pakenham Mdn-Sw on April 9 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, 6 len behind Cushioned carrying 130lbs at $3.30. The race before that ran on from midfield, 2nd of 10 at Pakenham Mdn-Sw on March 26 over 1 ¼m, on a wet track, 0.8 len behind Rorkes Drift with 130lbs at $8. Hard to beat on his best form. 2nd Pick 2 Ballistic Romeo Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Jason Warren J: Non Runner T: Jason Warren	228	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Last start 5th of 12 at Pakenham Mdn-Sw on April 9 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, 6 len behind Cushioned carrying 130lbs at $3.30. The race before that ran on from midfield, 2nd of 10 at Pakenham Mdn-Sw on March 26 over 1 ¼m, on a wet track, 0.8 len behind Rorkes Drift with 130lbs at $8. Hard to beat on his best form.
1	Most recently 7th of 14 at Swan Hill Mdn-Sw on April 12 over 1m, 3.5 len behind Romuald carrying 127lbs at $71. Before that ran last of 9 at this track 3yo Mdn-Sw on March 22 over 7f, 8 len behind Justique carrying 128lbs at $51. Certainly worth another chance. 3rd Pick 1 And I Am Jockey: John Allen Trainer: Henry Dwyer J: John Allen T: Henry Dwyer	95	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Most recently 7th of 14 at Swan Hill Mdn-Sw on April 12 over 1m, 3.5 len behind Romuald carrying 127lbs at $71. Before that ran last of 9 at this track 3yo Mdn-Sw on March 22 over 7f, 8 len behind Justique carrying 128lbs at $51. Certainly worth another chance.

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A new jockey who has not ridden a certain number of winners in a specified time period.

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An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.