AU - Mornington - Race 5

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

22.6K

VIEW

Verdict

ESMAHLI (10) is in a top metro barn and impressed when comfortably winning his Maiden here as a $3.4 favourite. The gate is a little awkward, but 21% stable-striker Dee rides today and the colt is capable of taking the next step. ROSA AOTEAROA (9) raced as a short-priced favourite and led and won his Maiden here by 5L. Just missed from the front at Ballarat after that and is on a 7-day return. He will be tough to beat. THUNDER AWARD (5) will give away a start but is busting to win again and can make the finish with average luck. RUSSIAN FRONT (4) brings an easy 56 win from Kyneton and maps well. He's also in the mix.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
10	Claiming his maiden victory on debut, favourite, ran on from midfield and won by 1.3 len at this track Mdn-Sw November 10 over 5f on a soft track defeating Ruby Avenue carrying 128lbs at $3.40. Looks capable of taking the next step. 1st Pick 10 Esmahli Jockey: Michael Dee Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: Michael Dee T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	97	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Claiming his maiden victory on debut, favourite, ran on from midfield and won by 1.3 len at this track Mdn-Sw November 10 over 5f on a soft track defeating Ruby Avenue carrying 128lbs at $3.40. Looks capable of taking the next step.
9	Racing well recently. At the latest run 2nd of 10 at Ballarat 0 - 62 on November 20 over 6f, 0.5 len behind Altermatum carrying 128lbs at $3.60. The race before that scored a big 5 len win at this track Mdn-Sw October 23 over 6f on a soft track defeating Chateau Vega with 131lbs at $2.50. Tough to roll. 2nd Pick 9 Rosa Aotearoa Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse Trainer: Reece Goodwin J: Daniel Stackhouse T: Reece Goodwin	118	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Racing well recently. At the latest run 2nd of 10 at Ballarat 0 - 62 on November 20 over 6f, 0.5 len behind Altermatum carrying 128lbs at $3.60. The race before that scored a big 5 len win at this track Mdn-Sw October 23 over 6f on a soft track defeating Chateau Vega with 131lbs at $2.50. Tough to roll.
5	Racing well recently. Last start made ground from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Pakenham Bm62 on November 14 over 6f, on a slow track, 0.6 len behind Delicate Lady with 132lbs at $8.50. The start before that ran on strongly from last on the turn, 3rd of 11 at Kilmore Bm56 on October 31 over 5 ½f, 1.3 len behind Zemgrinda carrying 139lbs at $3.70. Each way claims. 3rd Pick 5 Thunder Award Jockey: Jamie Mott Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell J: Jamie Mott T: Lloyd Kennewell	167	-	-	-	12%	15/2
Analysis Racing well recently. Last start made ground from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Pakenham Bm62 on November 14 over 6f, on a slow track, 0.6 len behind Delicate Lady with 132lbs at $8.50. The start before that ran on strongly from last on the turn, 3rd of 11 at Kilmore Bm56 on October 31 over 5 ½f, 1.3 len behind Zemgrinda carrying 139lbs at $3.70. Each way claims.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Stakes Race

Stakes Races are known as better class races, with higher purses and often accompanies by trophies.

Blinkers

A hood worn on a horse’s head to limit side vision, which can improve concentration. Blinkers are added or removed to relax a horse or give it more focus.

Claiming Race

A race in which horses are entered for a certain price, or claiming tag, which is also their sales price. An owner can claim any horse entered for the tag before the race begins, and owns them as soon as the gates open.