AU - Mornington - Race 3

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

7.5f

Maiden

Turf

GOOD 4

27.5K

VIEW

Verdict

I BELIEVE I BELONG (6) was never in the hunt on debut and then improved sharply when beaten less than 2L at Geelong over this distance on a wet track. Has a soft draw and a small claim and the tongue tie is on for the first time. She won't have to improve much to feature. MERIMBULA (3) won a jumpout but needed the first-up outing. He's suited by the step up in trip and he's shown enough to be a winning chance. HORATIUS (2) also strips fitter and will be more effective over the 7 ½f. Ben Melham is a key jockey booking. Has been kept on the fresh side and is capable of making the finish. PROFFER (5) is third-up and heading in the right direction. He's another who should enjoy the extra metres and also deserves consideration.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
6	Third race start today. At big odds at debut, 8th of 12 at Echuca Mdn-Sw on October 20 over 6 ½f, 5 len behind Brazenga carrying 121lbs at $31. Last start 3rd in a small field at Geelong Mdn-Sw on November 8 over 7f, on heavy track, 1.75 len behind Mozzoni with 123lbs at $5.50. Ready to win. 1st Pick 6 I Believe I Belong Jockey: Ryan Houston Trainer: Simon Zahra J: Ryan Houston T: Simon Zahra	124	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Third race start today. At big odds at debut, 8th of 12 at Echuca Mdn-Sw on October 20 over 6 ½f, 5 len behind Brazenga carrying 121lbs at $31. Last start 3rd in a small field at Geelong Mdn-Sw on November 8 over 7f, on heavy track, 1.75 len behind Mozzoni with 123lbs at $5.50. Ready to win.
3	Second-up. First-up after three months 8th of 10 at Geelong 3yo C&G Mdn-Sw on November 14 over 6f, 4 len behind Regeneration carrying 128lbs at $26. Previously second-up 5th of 11 at Geelong Mdn-Sw on August 8 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 5.5 len behind Hot Too Go with 126lbs at $3.30. Quick improver. 2nd Pick 3 Merimbula Jockey: Ben Allen Trainer: Matt Laurie J: Ben Allen T: Matt Laurie	179	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Second-up. First-up after three months 8th of 10 at Geelong 3yo C&G Mdn-Sw on November 14 over 6f, 4 len behind Regeneration carrying 128lbs at $26. Previously second-up 5th of 11 at Geelong Mdn-Sw on August 8 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 5.5 len behind Hot Too Go with 126lbs at $3.30. Quick improver.
2	At debut, 7th of 9 at Cranbourne 3yo Mdn-Sw on October 31 over 6f, 4.5 len behind Lyrics 'N' Song carrying 128lbs at $15. Open to improvement. Expected to do much better. 3rd Pick 2 Horatius Jockey: Ben Melham Trainer: Clinton Mcdonald J: Ben Melham T: Clinton Mcdonald	132	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis At debut, 7th of 9 at Cranbourne 3yo Mdn-Sw on October 31 over 6f, 4.5 len behind Lyrics 'N' Song carrying 128lbs at $15. Open to improvement. Expected to do much better.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Pari-Mutuel

A pool style wagering system, where all money input through betting is divided among those with winning tickets (save for various deductions by the track operators).

Fast

A dry dirt track that is typically an ideal racing surface.

Bug

An apprentice jockey.