AU - Sandown Lakeside - Race 6

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

133.9K

VIEW

Verdict

Good race but it is a slightly tricky one. NADAL (3) has had a messy campaign. Skipped several good tracks then flopped on heavy going at Flemington. Always out of position at Cranbourne but he did show a hint of his talent with nice closing splits. A year back and he was running the sort of splits that had him pegged as a G1 horse in the making. That is off the table for now but winning this remains within range. He got past HEDGED (5) at Cranbourne. He ran flat there on the back up so the little freshen up between runs can be a big tick for him. Think the extra ½f works for AVIATRESS (1) who was best at the death in a busy finish at 1½f. MARBLE NINE (2) peaked on the effort there but beaten less than three lengths and fitter. MAJOR SHARE (6) has the Flemington run in the book which says he is good enough. Was a winner at his lone other 6f try.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Returns from a 34-day let-up. Last start 6th of 14 at Cranbourne Meteorite on November 22 over 6f, 4 len behind Jigsaw with 129lbs at $9. The run before that sat on the pace before fading to run last of 9 at Flemington in the LR Fisher Stakes on November 8 over 6f, on rain affected going, 9 len behind Need Some Luck carrying 128lbs at $5. Searching for the form that made him one of the brightest prospects around 12 months ago. 1st Pick 3 Nadal Jockey: Robert Whearty Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Robert Whearty T: Ciaron Maher	133	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Returns from a 34-day let-up. Last start 6th of 14 at Cranbourne Meteorite on November 22 over 6f, 4 len behind Jigsaw with 129lbs at $9. The run before that sat on the pace before fading to run last of 9 at Flemington in the LR Fisher Stakes on November 8 over 6f, on rain affected going, 9 len behind Need Some Luck carrying 128lbs at $5. Searching for the form that made him one of the brightest prospects around 12 months ago.
5	Comes here off a 34-day let-up. At the latest run raced on the speed throughout before fading 7th of 14 at Cranbourne Meteorite on November 22 over 6f, 4 len behind Jigsaw with 126lbs at $3.60. The race before that raced on speed throughout when 2nd of 11 at Caulfield in the LR Caul Village on November 15 over 5 ½f, 1.5 len behind Boston Rocks with 126lbs at $2.50. Flat on the back up last time but the little freshen up could be the recipe. 2nd Pick 5 Hedged Jockey: Harry Coffey Trainer: Gavin Bedggood J: Harry Coffey T: Gavin Bedggood	170	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Comes here off a 34-day let-up. At the latest run raced on the speed throughout before fading 7th of 14 at Cranbourne Meteorite on November 22 over 6f, 4 len behind Jigsaw with 126lbs at $3.60. The race before that raced on speed throughout when 2nd of 11 at Caulfield in the LR Caul Village on November 15 over 5 ½f, 1.5 len behind Boston Rocks with 126lbs at $2.50. Flat on the back up last time but the little freshen up could be the recipe.
1	Third-up today. First-up 2nd of 12 at Caulfield in the G3 How Now on November 15 over 6f, nose behind Proved carrying 126lbs at $3.90. Last start favourite, ran on from midfield and won by a neck at Caulfield LR Doveton Stks November 29 over 5 ½f on a soft track defeating Boston Rocks with 123lbs at $3.80. Dove through to score in a busy finish at 5 ½f and probably better served back at 1 3rd Pick 1 Aviatress Jockey: Craig Williams Trainer: Richard & Chantelle Jolly J: Craig Williams T: Richard & Chantelle Jolly	147	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Third-up today. First-up 2nd of 12 at Caulfield in the G3 How Now on November 15 over 6f, nose behind Proved carrying 126lbs at $3.90. Last start favourite, ran on from midfield and won by a neck at Caulfield LR Doveton Stks November 29 over 5 ½f on a soft track defeating Boston Rocks with 123lbs at $3.80. Dove through to score in a busy finish at 5 ½f and probably better served back at 1

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A wet racetrack condition, typically with a firm base and water settling on top.

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