AU - Sandown Hillside - Race 7

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

685.4K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

Very tricky. SEMANTICS (12) might be the best value. She was a soft winner first up then ran well in the G3 Red Roses at Flemington, notably backed heavily late in the betting. Just forced back to the inside there which wasn't ideal and she was only beaten a head, fancy she can improve again and atone. CADDINGTON (6) really pinned the ears back to win the Crockett Stakes at Flemington last time over this trip. She's a talented filly who might be undersold again here. SEQUINNED (8) was the $1.90 favourite in the Red Roses and looked to have the leader cold but missed by a (costly) nose. Back to 6f should suit her better and she's a backable price too. The tricky one to assess is NATURAL FLING (2) off the Coolmore. Below her best there but she's been the leading sprinting filly all Spring and this is much easier, just wonder how much she has left in the tank. AFFARI (9) ran on well behind a potential star last time and the maiden win over this trip prior was dominant.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
12	Third-up today. First-up won by 1.3 len in a Mdn-Sw at Bendigo on October 4 over 5f in soft going defeating Keen Observer carrying 121lbs at $1.30. Second-up ran on from midfield, 3rd of 10 in the G3 Red Roses Stakes at Flemington on November 5 over 5 ½f, head behind Lady Catalina carrying 121lbs at $8. Very good last time and can improve again. 1st Pick 12 Semantics Jockey: Craig Williams Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman J: Craig Williams T: Anthony & Sam Freedman	110	-	-	-	8%	13/1
Analysis Third-up today. First-up won by 1.3 len in a Mdn-Sw at Bendigo on October 4 over 5f in soft going defeating Keen Observer carrying 121lbs at $1.30. Second-up ran on from midfield, 3rd of 10 in the G3 Red Roses Stakes at Flemington on November 5 over 5 ½f, head behind Lady Catalina carrying 121lbs at $8. Very good last time and can improve again.
6	Third-up today. First-up raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by 5 len in a F&M Mdn-Sw at Kyneton on October 8 over 6f in soft going defeating Incoherent with 122lbs at $1.40. Second-up won by a head in the LR William Crockett Stakes at Flemington on October 24 over 6f defeating Aroused with 123lbs at $12. Big win last time and can go on with it. 2nd Pick 6 Caddington Jockey: Billy Egan Trainer: Liam Howley J: Billy Egan T: Liam Howley	115	-	-	-	9%	11/1
Analysis Third-up today. First-up raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by 5 len in a F&M Mdn-Sw at Kyneton on October 8 over 6f in soft going defeating Incoherent with 122lbs at $1.40. Second-up won by a head in the LR William Crockett Stakes at Flemington on October 24 over 6f defeating Aroused with 123lbs at $12. Big win last time and can go on with it.
8	Recent form sound. Most recently 2nd of 10 in the G3 Red Roses Stakes at Flemington on November 5 over 5 ½f, nose behind Lady Catalina with 123lbs at $1.90. The start before that favourite, came from midfield and won by 2.5 len in a 3yo F SWP at Caulfield on October 10 over 6f defeating Almost An Angel with 123lbs at $2.80. Missed the barest of margins last time and can atone. 3rd Pick 8 Sequinned Jockey: Ben Melham Trainer: Chris Waller J: Ben Melham T: Chris Waller	143	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Recent form sound. Most recently 2nd of 10 in the G3 Red Roses Stakes at Flemington on November 5 over 5 ½f, nose behind Lady Catalina with 123lbs at $1.90. The start before that favourite, came from midfield and won by 2.5 len in a 3yo F SWP at Caulfield on October 10 over 6f defeating Almost An Angel with 123lbs at $2.80. Missed the barest of margins last time and can atone.

Upcoming Races

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