AU - Caulfield - Race 8

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

2089.1K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

Onto the Caulfield Guineas and again we're looking for a bit of value in he form of TRON BOLT (4) who is already a G1 winner over a mile in the JJ Atkins. His two runs back have been more than enough, given no chance fresh then holding his ground in a brutally run Golden Rose second up. He was at his top throughout there, the step to a mile can see him improve lengths and this has been his grand final all along. WARWOVEN (2) won the Golden Rose brilliantly and smashed the clock in doing so. Can't see a mile posing an issue off that but it was a huge spike, perhaps he regresses just a touch. Regardless, he's the one to beat. Very wary of BLIND RAISE (5) who was dominant winning the Prelude, working early then attacked on the turn but putting a gap on them late. He'll be on speed and run this out strongly. CENTRAL EUROPE (7) went way too fast in the Golden Rose and could improve from DIAMETER (6) who won the Stutt Stakes, albeit that looks the inferior form line.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
4	Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up from last on the turn 7th of 11 in a G2 The Run To The Rose at Rosehill on September 12 over 6f, 4 len behind Warwoven with 129lbs at $21. Second-up 5th of 12 in the G1 Golden Rose Stakes at Rosehill on September 26 over 7f, 5 len behind Warwoven with 125lbs at $10. Run off his feet latest, he'll be peaking third up to a mile. 1st Pick 4 Tron Bolt Jockey: Craig Williams Trainer: Chris Waller J: Craig Williams T: Chris Waller	156	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up from last on the turn 7th of 11 in a G2 The Run To The Rose at Rosehill on September 12 over 6f, 4 len behind Warwoven with 129lbs at $21. Second-up 5th of 12 in the G1 Golden Rose Stakes at Rosehill on September 26 over 7f, 5 len behind Warwoven with 125lbs at $10. Run off his feet latest, he'll be peaking third up to a mile.
2	Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run won by 3 len in the G1 Golden Rose Stakes at Rosehill on September 26 over 7f defeating St Gotthard carrying 125lbs at $6. Before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by a long-neck in a G2 The Run To The Rose at Rosehill on September 12 over 6f defeating St Gotthard carrying 126lbs at $8. Awesome win in the Golden Rose, clearly the one to beat off that. 2nd Pick 2 Warwoven Jockey: Rachel King Trainer: Bjorn Baker J: Rachel King T: Bjorn Baker	237	-	-	-	45%	5/4
Analysis Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run won by 3 len in the G1 Golden Rose Stakes at Rosehill on September 26 over 7f defeating St Gotthard carrying 125lbs at $6. Before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by a long-neck in a G2 The Run To The Rose at Rosehill on September 12 over 6f defeating St Gotthard carrying 126lbs at $8. Awesome win in the Golden Rose, clearly the one to beat off that.
5	Third-up today. First-up favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 1.75 len in the LR Mitchell McKenzie Stakes at Sandown-Hillside on September 5 over 6 ½f in soft going defeating Wolf Gap carrying 127lbs at $3. Second-up favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 2.75 len in the G3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude at this track on September 19 over 7f defeating Tornado Valley carrying 126lbs at $2.40. Dominant latest and gets map favours, can upset the Sydney colts. 3rd Pick 5 Blind Raise Jockey: Blake Shinn Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young J: Blake Shinn T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young	124	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Third-up today. First-up favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 1.75 len in the LR Mitchell McKenzie Stakes at Sandown-Hillside on September 5 over 6 ½f in soft going defeating Wolf Gap carrying 127lbs at $3. Second-up favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 2.75 len in the G3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude at this track on September 19 over 7f defeating Tornado Valley carrying 126lbs at $2.40. Dominant latest and gets map favours, can upset the Sydney colts.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

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A hood worn on a horse’s head to limit side vision, which can improve concentration. Blinkers are added or removed to relax a horse or give it more focus.

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A wager involving choosing the first, second, third, and fourth horses in one race in the exact order. A superfecta box involves paying more to ensure they can finish in any order in the top four spots.