AU - Caulfield - Race 5

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

167.1K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

Looks another rematch between BRIDAL WALTZ (7) and POINT BARROW (2) who fought out the finish of the G3 How Now Stakes over this route last start. Bridal Waltz was backed off the map to start $1.85 there and there was criticism of the ride which allowed Point Barrow to get into the race and level up inside the 1f mark. The early market can barely split them this time but Bridal Waltz is the one who will be in front for most of the way and Point Barrow will always need luck so we'll fancy the tables to turn. NAIFAH (4) resumes. She went through the grades nicely last time in with a G3 and a Listed win. She should measure up well. PHOTOGRAPH (12) has minor claims off latest. TOMATO TOASTIE (13) will want a bit further but can stick on for a placing.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
7	Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up set the pace for much of the race 2nd of 8 in a G3 The Heath 1100 Stakes at this track on August 29 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Oliveanotherday carrying 121lbs at $3.70. Second-up rolled along in front then was edged out late 2nd of 10 in the G3 How Now Stakes at this track on September 19 over 6f, long-neck behind Point Barrow carrying 121lbs at $1.85. Just bloused last time but gets every favour to turn the tables. 1st Pick 7 Bridal Waltz Jockey: Luke Nolen Trainer: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman J: Luke Nolen T: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman	155	-	-	-	35%	15/8
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up set the pace for much of the race 2nd of 8 in a G3 The Heath 1100 Stakes at this track on August 29 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Oliveanotherday carrying 121lbs at $3.70. Second-up rolled along in front then was edged out late 2nd of 10 in the G3 How Now Stakes at this track on September 19 over 6f, long-neck behind Point Barrow carrying 121lbs at $1.85. Just bloused last time but gets every favour to turn the tables.
2	Third-up today and placed third-up previously. Resuming 11th of 13 in the G1 Moir Stakes at Sandown-Hillside on September 5 over 5f, slow going 5 len behind My Gladiola carrying 125lbs at $16. Last start settled well back, won by a long-neck in the G3 How Now Stakes at this track on September 19 over 6f defeating Bridal Waltz carrying 126lbs at $7.50. Very well ridden to win last time, will need to be again from the gate but she's got a big turn of foot. 2nd Pick 2 Point Barrow Jockey: Mark Zahra Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman J: Mark Zahra T: Anthony & Sam Freedman	241	-	-	-	35%	15/8
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up previously. Resuming 11th of 13 in the G1 Moir Stakes at Sandown-Hillside on September 5 over 5f, slow going 5 len behind My Gladiola carrying 125lbs at $16. Last start settled well back, won by a long-neck in the G3 How Now Stakes at this track on September 19 over 6f defeating Bridal Waltz carrying 126lbs at $7.50. Very well ridden to win last time, will need to be again from the gate but she's got a big turn of foot.
4	Has won previously first-up and resumes here after a break of four months. Finished off last campaign won by 1.2 len Ipswich LR Gai Waterhouse June 20 over 6f slow track defeating Manolo Bling carrying 118lbs at $4.40. Previously first up, third of 10 at Mornington 3yo F Hcp April 18 over 6f, a long neck behind Torsheen carrying 122lbs at $7. Good mare who can progress again this time 3rd Pick 4 Naifah Jockey: Blake Shinn Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr J: Blake Shinn T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr	104	-	-	-	10%	9/1
Analysis Has won previously first-up and resumes here after a break of four months. Finished off last campaign won by 1.2 len Ipswich LR Gai Waterhouse June 20 over 6f slow track defeating Manolo Bling carrying 118lbs at $4.40. Previously first up, third of 10 at Mornington 3yo F Hcp April 18 over 6f, a long neck behind Torsheen carrying 122lbs at $7. Good mare who can progress again this time

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