AU - Caulfield - Race 5

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

5.5f

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 7

141.4K

VIEW

Verdict

The Vain Stakes sees a lot of classy returning 3yo types and CLOSER TO FREE (2) is one having proved an impressive winner of the G3 Blue Diamond Prelude on debut, beating subsequent Golden Slipper winner Guest House. He was very brave in the Blue Diamond and then went too hard in the Slipper, he should improve into his second campaign and take catching. Not sure what to do with HARD KICK (3) who was poor first up at Flemington as a $2 favourite. The debut win was fast, around a bend first time here and we'll get a much better price. CONFEDERATION (7) resumes. He was well backed on debut in the G3 Canonbury for strong connections, respecting Waller bringing him down here at double figures. BIG WIGS (4) ran on for a good win in the Showdown here before a spell, he might give better horses a start here though. MYHRO'S RULER (9) was a dominant Echuca maiden winner fresh and the time there said he could measure up.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
2	Racing first-up today. Finished off last preparation second last of 16 at Rosehill in the G1 G Slipper March 21 over 6f, soft track, 8 len behind Guest House with 125lbs at $8. At his first start won by 1.0 len this track G3 Bd/Prel Cg February 7 over 5 ½f defeating Guest House carrying 126lbs at $13. Classy colt who will be very hard to catch. 1st Pick 2 Closer To Free Jockey: Mark Zahra Trainer: Danny O'brien J: Mark Zahra T: Danny O'brien	180	-	-	-	58%
Analysis Racing first-up today. Finished off last preparation second last of 16 at Rosehill in the G1 G Slipper March 21 over 6f, soft track, 8 len behind Guest House with 125lbs at $8. At his first start won by 1.0 len this track G3 Bd/Prel Cg February 7 over 5 ½f defeating Guest House carrying 126lbs at $13. Classy colt who will be very hard to catch.
3	Third race start. Strong on debut as favourite, won by 2.75 len in the LR Talindert Stakes at Flemington on February 14 over 5 ½f defeating Zambales carrying 126lbs at $3. Went for a break before returning did the work up front then tired 6th of 8 at Flemington on July 18 over 5f, slow going 5 len behind Riverina Lulu carrying 127lbs at $2. Plain disappointing fresh but is much better than that. 2nd Pick 3 Hard Kick Jockey: Damian Lane Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: Damian Lane T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	178	-	-	-	10%
Analysis Third race start. Strong on debut as favourite, won by 2.75 len in the LR Talindert Stakes at Flemington on February 14 over 5 ½f defeating Zambales carrying 126lbs at $3. Went for a break before returning did the work up front then tired 6th of 8 at Flemington on July 18 over 5f, slow going 5 len behind Riverina Lulu carrying 127lbs at $2. Plain disappointing fresh but is much better than that.
7	Racing first-up today. Finished off last campaign second last of 9 at Rosehill in the G2 Silver Slp February 21 over 5 ½f, 6 len behind Stretan Ruler carrying 125lbs at $5. On debut second in a small field at Rosehill in the G3 Canonbury January 31 over 5 ½f, 1.75 len behind Hidrix carrying 121lbs at $3.40. Has shown good ability, wary of top yard bringing him here. 3rd Pick 7 Confederation Jockey: Ben Melham Trainer: Chris Waller J: Ben Melham T: Chris Waller	104	-	-	-	8%
Analysis Racing first-up today. Finished off last campaign second last of 9 at Rosehill in the G2 Silver Slp February 21 over 5 ½f, 6 len behind Stretan Ruler carrying 125lbs at $5. On debut second in a small field at Rosehill in the G3 Canonbury January 31 over 5 ½f, 1.75 len behind Hidrix carrying 121lbs at $3.40. Has shown good ability, wary of top yard bringing him here.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Bolt

A sudden veering to the inside or outside rail, often caused by the horse spooking or shying from something.

Starter Race

An allowance race restricted to horses who have started for a certain claiming price recently.