AU - Ballarat - Race 7

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

22.8K

VIEW

Verdict

ALTERMATUM (8) just gets the nod. She has a reputation of finding one or two better and has been beaten in all three runs this time in, but they've been in solid company, fourth over this trip at Pakenham last time out. She can take this out. ROSA AOTEAROA (3) is the obvious threat off a dominant maiden win last start at Mornington, scoring by five lengths. Didn't beat much there but has to be respected off that effort. CHERRABAH (9) was poor last time at Cranbourne behind a very talented type. The fresh run was solid despite going under as favourite, look for improvement here. FLUX (5) is going okay without winning, he can sneak into the minors at odds. SWEATER GIRL (10) went to the paddock a winner and can run an honest race fresh.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
8	Racing well recently. At the latest run 4th of 8 at Pakenham F&M Bm66 on November 7 over 6f, on a wet track, 3.5 len behind Reina Isabella carrying 129lbs at $2.60. The race before that 2nd of 7 at Geelong Bm66 on October 22 over 5 ½f, slow going 0.5 len behind Normandy Lass with 125lbs at $2.90. Brings the right form. 1st Pick 8 Altermatum Jockey: Logan Bates Trainer: Tony & Calvin Mcevoy J: Logan Bates T: Tony & Calvin Mcevoy	218	-	-	-	45%	5/4
Analysis Racing well recently. At the latest run 4th of 8 at Pakenham F&M Bm66 on November 7 over 6f, on a wet track, 3.5 len behind Reina Isabella carrying 129lbs at $2.60. The race before that 2nd of 7 at Geelong Bm66 on October 22 over 5 ½f, slow going 0.5 len behind Normandy Lass with 125lbs at $2.90. Brings the right form.
3	Third-up today. Resuming gave a sight but was run down late 2nd of 9 at Sale Mdn-Sw on October 8 over 5 ½f, nose behind Bajaria with 131lbs at $15. Last start favourite, scored a big 5 len win at Mornington Mdn-Sw October 23 over 6f on a rain affected track defeating Chateau Vega with 131lbs at $2.50. Can go right on with it now. 2nd Pick 3 Rosa Aotearoa Jockey: Luke Cartwright Trainer: Reece Goodwin J: Luke Cartwright T: Reece Goodwin	105	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Third-up today. Resuming gave a sight but was run down late 2nd of 9 at Sale Mdn-Sw on October 8 over 5 ½f, nose behind Bajaria with 131lbs at $15. Last start favourite, scored a big 5 len win at Mornington Mdn-Sw October 23 over 6f on a rain affected track defeating Chateau Vega with 131lbs at $2.50. Can go right on with it now.
9	Third-up today. Resuming sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 8 at Kilmore Nmw on October 13 over 6f, 2 len behind Porsha Crystal with 129lbs at $1.80. Last start 7th of 9 at Cranbourne Bm62 on October 31 over 6f, 13 len behind Tennessee Bound carrying 128lbs at $6. Can bounce back. 3rd Pick 9 Cherrabah Jockey: Emily Pozman Trainer: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman J: Emily Pozman T: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman	115	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Third-up today. Resuming sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 8 at Kilmore Nmw on October 13 over 6f, 2 len behind Porsha Crystal with 129lbs at $1.80. Last start 7th of 9 at Cranbourne Bm62 on October 31 over 6f, 13 len behind Tennessee Bound carrying 128lbs at $6. Can bounce back.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Trifecta

A wager picking the first, second and third horses in the exact order. A trifecta box means paying more to ensure the horses can finish in any order in the top three spots.

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Mare

A female horse of five years or more.